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COMMUNITY The Official 2024 Presidential Election Thread

Added to Calendar: 11-05-24

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Marc123 said:
Good to hear, do you think biden can will GA in 2024?

He can win all those, he should stay in
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Yes he can. GA isn't even the biggest toss up. A lot of the anti-Biden people are underestimating the Black voter turnout. AZ will be closer than GA but the AZ Democrats are very strong and popular.
 
ChicagoFigure said:
What's your take on the election if Biden drops out?
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(He ain't dropping out)

But let's say he does for arguments sake,

If Biden drops out, Kamala Harris 100% has to be the nominee at the TOP of the ticket.

Now you have to weigh the Pros and Cons of Biden dropping out.

Pros:
  • Guarantees a younger POTUS if Dems win which resets the field for the next generation.
  • Will most likely rejuvenate the younger voter base and increase their turnout (marginally).
  • Will show a stark contrast between the two parties and make the Republicans look older which will help turn *some* young Republican voters or young voters that come from Republican households and communities.
  • Black women will vote in historic numbers for Kamala which she will 100% need.
Cons:
  • Money. Nobody in the party can raise as much money as Joe Biden. That goes with him if he drops out. It's July. Election is in 107 days.
  • The fracture it would show publicly in the party is GUARANTEED to turn away voters (Black women) which is not something Dems can afford to do right now.
  • Statistically, Joe Biden is one of the most accomplished President's in modern history. He has gotten a lot of shit done regardless if niggas don't wanna hear it or don't think that it's enough (It's never going to be enough under a single term or even a single POTUS run though). If he drops out, the odds of his replacement being more successful will be severely impacted. Statistically.
  • The gains for getting rid of Biden are marginal at best. Look at the pros I listed. Elections aren't won in surveys and private polls. They're won on Election Day in November. The Pros I listed will have minimal impact on Election Day which is what really matters.
  • Timing. It's too late. This would be like firing your coach in April when you already locked up Home Court Advantage. You knew who he was when you started the season and the nigga still got you HCA. Why are you firing him in April? You have to replace him with somebody who is already on the staff too (Kamala) because you aren't going to change out your entire coaching staff in April for a playoff team with HCA. You're stuck.
  • Nobody in the party can get the Big 3 Democratic voting pillars as easily or as impactful as Biden can. Those big 3 pillars are
    • Black women
    • Rust belt voters (Progressives mainly)
    • Big donors
  • Biden combines all 3 better than any other Democrat RIGHT NOW. That's why he's the nominee and that's why he won in 2020. Some nominees can get Black women and Big donors but they will do poorly in the Rust Belt (Kamala). Some nominees can do great in the Rust belt but they will get destroyed by Black women and Big donors (Bernie). Some nominees will do well in all 3 areas but simply not as well as Biden would, and not well enough to beat a candidate like Trump (Beto, Mayor Pete, Big Gretch, Newsome)
 
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