The Pelicans are no stranger to the ping-pong balls falling in their favor at the NBA Draft Lottery, and they’re hoping to get lucky again on June 22.
New Orleans only has a 4.5 percent chance of jumping back up to the No. 1 pick for the second time in three years, but the odds of them moving up are still much better than they’ve been in the past.
Even after landing at No. 10 in the draft lottery odds due to a three-way tiebreaker, the Pels have a 20.3 percent chance of jumping into the top-4 of this year’s draft.
And with such an impressive class coming into this year’s draft, landing anywhere in the top-4 would be a significant win for an organization desperate to add more star power around Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram.
As we wait to see where the Pels will be picking and who they could possibly target, we ran through a few scenarios to forecast what they might have to face. I spun the wheel on
Tankathon.com’s Mock Draft Lottery simulator five times and decided what New Orleans would do based on how the draft went in front of them.
Time to break out your lucky ties!
Scenario No. 1
The Pelicans select at No. 10 … Davion Mitchell, guard, Baylor
Having Golden State and Oklahoma City drop the way they did in this scenario probably pushed Mitchell a little further down the board than expected. He’d be a welcomed addition to a Pels backcourt that needs more tenacity and more playmakers.
Mitchell was a late bloomer in college after transferring to Baylor following his freshman season. During their championship run last year, he looked like a rugged two-way star with the potential to grow into a dynamic offensive weapon with some additional grooming.
He’d step into a crowded backcourt in New Orleans with former first-rounders Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kira Lewis Jr. returning. And that’s before we even mention what happens next with Lonzo Ball.
David Griffin and his front office staff are on a mission to find guards who can make plays off the dribble and take some of the pressure off of Williamson and Ingram. Mitchell won’t step in and solve all those problems immediately, but he would be a nice complement to what Alexander-Walker and Lewis provide.
There are questions about how effective Mitchell would be in an increased role or as a primary ballhandler, but playing with so many shot creators could make things easier for him.
Scenario No. 2
The Pelicans select with the No. 11 pick … Franz Wagner, forward, Michigan
Moving back one spot in the draft order is never fun, but watching Mitchell and Corey Kispert go right before the Pelicans selection made this scenario hurt even more.
Landing Wagner is still a good pickup for New Orleans as it would add some of the toughness and defensive IQ Griffin has mentioned as some of his top priorities going into this offseason.
Even though he’s a little raw on offense and needs to improve his jump shot, he does a lot of little things that would cover up some of the areas where Williamson and Ingram lack on defense. He also gives New Orleans the versatility to play small in certain matchups next to Williamson or as a big small forward in other lineups.
Adding another perimeter player with his length and understanding of how to play passing lanes would be major for one of the worst defenses in the league. If he turns into one of those guys who can be trusted in matchups against explosive wings like Kawhi Leonard or Michael Porter Jr., it would make this pick a steal.
Scenario No. 3
The Pelicans select with the No. 10 pick … Corey Kispert, wing, Gonzaga
This is pretty much what it would look like if chaos broke out with the first 10 picks in the draft, and the big winner here would be New Orleans if all this madness happened in front of them.
Bagging Kispert with the 10th pick would be a no-brainer for New Orleans, and
I’ve written before about how much I love his fit in a Pelicans offense that constantly failed to spread the court for its best players.
He’s the best outside shooter in this class, and he’ll step into the league with an immediate understanding of what his role will look like at the next level.
He needs to tighten certain aspects of his game, such as one-on-one defense and playmaking in pick-and-rolls, but he would immediately make the Pelicans a better offense with his presence as a floor spacer. He’s dangerous as a standstill shooter or while on the move, and he’s skilled enough to get by defenders and finish at the basket if they run him off the line.
Putting shooters around Williamson has to be the No. 1 mission for New Orleans after this past year, and adding someone like Kispert to the mix would go a long way in making this offseason an instant success.
Scenario No. 4
The Pelicans select with the No. 3 pick … Jalen Green, guard, G League Ignite
This may be a controversial decision. The consensus top-3 players on most draft boards coming into this year are Cade Cunningham, Jalen Suggs and Evan Mobley. All three of those guys would’ve had a legitimate shot at going No. 1 in last year’s draft.
But if I’m the Pelicans, I’m jumping for joy if I have an opportunity to add an unbelievable talent like Green to the mix.
Most fans haven’t seen the 19-year-old play yet because he spent last season with the NBA’s G League Ignite club after skipping college. You may have seen highlights of him here or there, but I want to be clear: this guy is a special talent.
He may be 175 pounds soaking wet by the time he enters the league, but he’s a once-in-a-generation kind of athlete at the guard position with the potential to grow into a big-time scorer one day.
He can shoot it from deep, make shots in the midrange, and knows how to use his body to get past defenders. What I love most about him is his incredible burst in the open court and explosiveness around the rim. Putting this guy on the same team with Williamson would instantly make New Orleans the NBA’s most fun team to watch. It’ll turn into an And1 Mixtape Tour every time they run a fast break.
Passing up on Mobley would be risky. He would be a much cheaper option than Steven Adams and could serve as a more traditional option at center rather than the slender Jaxson Hayes.
I still believe Green would be an exceptional fit in New Orleans. Playing next to two All-Stars would allow him to develop at his own pace and not feel the pressure to be a 20-point scorer immediately like he would in other places.
The big concern would be the potential of Green, Williamson and Ingram all being minus defenders as the building blocks of the club. If Green can continue to expand his game as an offensive weapon, that’s a risk I’d be willing to take.
Scenario 5
The Pelicans select with the No. 2 pick … Jalen Suggs, guard, Gonzaga
Again, passing up on the best big in the draft would be a tough decision right here. It could be one the Pelicans come to regret.
But Suggs has the skill set and the “it” factor to become a special floor general if he continues his current trajectory.
He’s a skilled shotmaker, and his speed in the open court would be ideal with the athletes he’d be surrounded by in New Orleans. His decision-making in traffic is what really impresses me for a young player. He knows how to find guys, and he enjoys making people better. Just let him run the fast break with Williamson on one wing and Ingram on the other and enjoy the fireworks.
He’d also give the Pels comfort in closing the chapter on Ball’s time in New Orleans and make it much easier for them to move on. His skill set overlaps Lewis in some ways, but Suggs is just a more complete player at this point in their careers. There is still a place for Lewis to make an impact while playing with Suggs.
His fiery attitude and willingness to do the little things to win games are characteristics any coach would want from a point guard playing next to two All-Stars.
It’s probably a pipe dream to imagine these guys in New Orleans, but getting lucky enough to add either of the Jalens — Suggs or Green — in this year’s draft would be a franchise-altering opportunity for the Pels.