The Case Against Mike Tomlin:
We’ve looked at the defense of Mike Tomlin. Now let’s look at the case against him. Just like every other human in the world he is flawed. It has become an established fact that Mike Tomlin’s teams "play down" to competition. Sometimes these numbers get skewed to paint a narrative that isn’t always the whole picture. People latch on to certain records even though they may not be indictive of a teams body of work. So, if the Steelers drop a game to a 1-3 bunch early in the year people hold that against Tomlin’s record against sub .500 ball clubs. But what if that club finished 8-8, 9-7, 10-6, or whatever? Did they lose to a team that was a just down right ball club? Or did they lose to a team that started off slow and then found their footing enough to go compete for a playoff spot? Due to this all the numbers I use are like above. I am using the final record opposing teams posted. Mike Tomlin comes in with a 73.9 winning percentage against teams that finish the season sub .500. Of the same group of coaches he comes it at the lowest. Mike McCarthy’s entire career is built on beating the losing teams of the NFL. He comes in at an 80.9%. John Harbaugh has posted a win percentage of 78.3. Pete Carroll has posted a 76.6% against sub .500 clubs. Sean Payton is at 75%. Belichick at an unreal 86.7% and Cowher at 74.2%. Table below:
As stated above, Tomlin comes in with the lowest win percentage against sub .500 groups of this list. Looking at the raw numbers one can infer that even though he is at the lowest he isn’t far off from the others on the list. This is where things get frustrating. Mike Tomlin has never posted a losing season. McCarthy, Harbaugh, Carroll, Payton, and Cowher have. Also, remember we are only using Belichick’s Pats tenure for this study.
All but John Harbaugh posted multiple losing seasons. Ready for frustrating news? Even during these seasons these coaches found success vs teams that finished sub .500 like them. They posted losing seasons because they just simply weren’t good football teams as shown by their poor records vs winning teams. For example, Pete Carroll’s 1994 Jets finished 6-10. They 3-1 against teams that finished sub .500. That means they went 3-9 against teams that finished .500 or better. In Bill Cowher’s 6-10 seasons they finished 4-2 against sub .500 clubs in 1999 and 4-3 in 2003. Meaning they went 2-8 and 2-7 against .500 or better clubs respectfully. Mike McCarthy went 7-9 in 2017. He was 5-0 vs teams that finished that year under .500. Meaning his team went 4-9 against the rest of the field. Even without his starting QB his club was still able to go undefeated against the dregs of the league. From 2014-2016 Sean Payton posted 3 straight 7-9 seasons. His records against teams that finished sub .500 is as follows: 5-4, 4-4, 5-1. These Saints teams just simply weren’t good enough as they posted losing records vs .500 or better clubs. Now when these coaches have good teams the records look different. They continue to take care of business against the losing teams of the league being more competitive against the teams that are competing for playoff glory.
That is what makes Mike Tomlin coached teams frustrating. He more consistently has the talent to compete with the other winning teams of the league as evident of his record against those teams compared to the peers, he is most associated with. Yet, his winning percentage against the lesser teams of the league is lower than all of them. That is an important fact. One that can be analyzed even deeper. One of the biggest keys to post season success is seeding. Getting those important byes. Those important homes games. Getting healthy. Most important, playing one less game. The more games you play in the NFL the closer you are to your next loss. We can go through Tomlin’s seasons and see this play out. One thing I found in my research is that it is not uncommon for teams around the league to drop a game or two to these lesser teams. Even the Patriots have lapses. This year they finished the regular season at 6-3 against sub .500 clubs. Luckily for them it was a year where the rest of the AFC did not take advantage of it. This is important to keep in mind when trying to be fair in evaluate these winning percentages. Some may think it lessens the heat that should be put on Tomlin for these types of lapses. I disagree. It happens more frequently with his team while having more talent than most peers on a consistent basis. Since 2014, The Steelers have lost 10 games and tied another to teams that finished sub .500. In just about every year it has cost the Steelers in seeding. In 2012, The steelers were 4-4 against sub .500 teams. The same record they posted against teams that finished at .500 or better. In 2014, The Steelers were 5-4 against sub .500 clubs. Two of those losses were to the 2-14 Buccaneers at home and the washed-up Vick led Jets. If they win those games the Steelers are 12-3 entering week 17. They are right in the mix for a bye. That is one less game you must play if you get it. Or if everything else stays equal it is not a must win game. Le’Veon Bell is not playing in that game. He is available for the post season. You’re not rolling in that game with Ben Tate. Most recently the Steelers failed to win 3 games against teams that finished under .500. The Steelers missed the playoffs by half a game.
One can also be frustrated with in game decisions made by Coach Tomlin. His stubbornness to change some of his ways has become tiresome for some fans. He refuses to add staff to help with challenges and clock stuff when it has become the norm around the league. Mike Tomlin is 32/71 on challenges in his career. He has not won a challenge in the last two seasons. Some of them being head scratching to begin with. For example, there was a challenge against NE that made zero sense. Everyone who had access to the replay could tell that neither of the NE special teamers who helped down the punt inside the 2ish yard line had stepped on the goal line. Mike Tomlin even had a TV timeout to his advantage to sort this out. Then against New Orleans he fails to challenge what would have been a catch and fumble by the catch rule we currently abide by. In the same game there was the odd fake punt call. It was odd for multiple reasons. The idea of going for the first down can be argued as a sound one, but why the fake punt? You needed 5 yards. You are giving the ball to the offensive skill player who touches the ball least out of all of them. You are asking two defensive players who do not practice run blocking on a regular basis to make key blocks. All while having a top 5 offense that was rolling with their future HOF QB at the helm and the best WR tandem in the league. Of the three options Mike Tomlin could have picked, two of them could be argued as sound and the correct decision. He chose to pick the incorrect one.
Mike Tomlin preaches that his teams respect their opponents regardless of who they are. This cannot be further from the truth. We already know what his record is. I do not need to go further into that. What we can do is see this in practice in his gameday decisions. Think back to week 10 of the 2015 seasons. The Steelers are playing the Browns. The team decides that Ben Roethlisberger is healthy enough to participates. Instead Mike Tomlin starts Landry Jones. Why? Because it is the Browns? What if Landry Jones doesn’t get hurt, but struggles? Does Tomlin leave him in until he has no choice to go to Ben, who was already deemed healthy enough to play? The New England stuff last season. This season in Oakland, Ben is healthy enough to return to the game. Tomlin’s reasoning for leaving Dobbs in the game was because they were "rolling". Dobbs was struggling mightily and threw an interception. Tomlin puts Ben back in the game after they fall behind. His mindset is clear in his actions. It is "just" the Raiders. This time it bit him. It’s instance like this that make Coach T such a frustrating figure head at times.
They say great coaches are measured by playoff success. How do we measure Tomlin? He has a Super Bowl ring and guided the Steelers to another. But, since 2011 he has advanced beyond the Divisional round just once. One person they compare his play off record to is Bill Cowher. Tomlin sits at 8-7 giving him a 53.3 winning percentage. Bill Cowher retire with a 12-9 record with a 57.1 winning percentage. They each have the same amount of Super Bowl wins and appearances. So, pretty similar right? Well, let’s look deeper. Cowher’s teams lost post season games to teams who helmed the likes of Frank Reich, Joe Montana, Stan Humphries, Troy Aikman, Drew Bledsoe, John Elway, Tom Brady, and Steve McNair. at QB Of that cast only Reich and Humphries, though still stringing together stints of solid paly, failed to register a pro bowl nod while also sporting 4 HOFers and another who won a share of the league MVP one season. A closer look at Tomlin’s gives us the following: Gerard, Rodgers, Tebow, Flacco, Dead Arm Peyton Manning, Brady, and Bortles.
