Still a frozen conflict for now. Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia have all declared independence, but they still count as frozen conflicts.
Putin's game has been to set up frozen conflicts in the countries that were part of the Czarist and Soviet empires, to ensure he has a say over their future.
If the Ukrainians do better than expected, a protracted shooting war exposes weaknesses in the Russian armed forces. If they steamroll them, we know how an occupation is gonna go.
I could honestly see Putin glassing Kyiv and calling it a day, sick as that is. One of the theories behind Hitler starting WW2 is that he had a Parkinson's diagnosis and that was a TERMINAL diagnosis so he was like "fuck it, now or never. i ain't gonna be here to hear yall call me evil". Well there's been rumors of Putin fighting Cancer for years..............................