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FEATURED 2023 NBA Offseason Thread

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The Danny Ainge System: Using Sabermetrics to rate every NBA team's top executive

A look at each top decision-maker's entire record across three categories: draft picks, trades and free-agent signings.
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1. Ainge (Utah)
2. Ujiri (Toronto)
3. Wright (San Antonio)
4. Jones (Phoenix)
5. Pritchard (Indiana)
6. Riley (Miami)
7. Weaver (Detroit)
8. Altman (Cleveland)
9. Stevens (Boston)
10. Kleiman (Memphis)
11. Griffin (New Orleans)
12. Presti (OKC)
13. Morey (Philadelphia)
13. Connelly (Minnesota)
15. Pelinka (LAL)
16. McNair (Sacramento)
17. Frank (LAC)
18. Stone (Houston)
19. Horst (Milwaukee)
20. Marks (Brooklyn)
21. Weltman (Orlando)
22. Rose (New York)
23. Karnišovas (Chicago)
24. Kupchak (Charlotte)
25. Harrison (Dallas)

It has been three years since last we experimented with what I will call The Danny Ainge System, using baseball's Sabermetrics to evaluate NBA front offices. It is inspired by Ainge's stint with the Toronto Blue Jays and the similarities between Daryl Morey's brand of team-building and Billy Beane's Moneyball.

The method was originally created to rate draft histories, and we have expanded it this time around to cover an executive's entire record across three categories: draft picks, trades and free-agent signings.

Each transaction is still categorized in baseball terms based on the original formula (for the most part):

HR: Bona fide All-Stars
3B: Top-flight performers
2B: Front-end rotation players
1B: Other noteworthy contributors
BB: Lateral and inconclusive moves
K: Diminished returns

We then calculated every executive's on-base and slugging percentages, combining them to determine their OPS within each category and overall. They are by overall OPS, excepting executives who assumed decision-making duties in the past year: Denver Nuggets general manager Calvin Booth, Portland Trail Blazers GM Joe Cronin, Atlanta Hawks GM Landry Fields, Washington Wizards team president Michael Winger and Golden State Warriors GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. The sample sizes for them are simply too small.

Ratings fluctuate more with less experience. For example, Brian Wright's 1.642 OPS since replacing R.C. Buford as San Antonio Spurs GM in 2019 is less impressive than Kevin Pritchard's 1.591 OPS in a decade's work as lead decision-maker for the Blazers (2007-10) and Indiana Pacers (since 2017), much like Mickey Mantle's .977 OPS in 18 seasons is more impressive than Aaron Judge's .980 OPS in eight.

(Note: Transactions after the 2023 trade deadline are too recent to rate, so Wright is not yet credited for drafting Victor Wembanyama with the No. 1 overall draft pick this year, a meatball over the middle of the plate.)

Top 5 executives: Draft picks
(Minimum five transactions)

1. Tim Connelly, Denver Nuggets (2013-22) • Minnesota Timberwolves (2022-)
2. Zach Kleiman, Memphis Grizzlies (2019-)
3. Masai Ujiri, Denver Nuggets (2010-13) • Toronto Raptors (2013-)
4. Rafael Stone, Houston Rockets (2020-)
5. Sam Presti, Oklahoma City Thunder (2007-)


Top 5 executives: Trades
(Minimum five transactions)

1. Danny Ainge, Boston Celtics (2003-2021) • Utah Jazz (2021-)
2. Kevin Pritchard, Portland Trail Blazers (2007-10) • Indiana Pacers (2017-)
3. Masai Ujiri, Denver Nuggets (2010-13) • Toronto Raptors (2013-)
4. Pat Riley, Miami Heat (1995-)
5. Jon Horst, Milwaukee Bucks (2017-)


Top 5 executives: Free-agent signings
(Minimum five transactions)

1. James Jones, Phoenix Suns (2018-)
2. Rob Pelinka, Los Angeles Lakers (2019-)
3. Kevin Pritchard, Portland Trail Blazers (2007-10) • Indiana Pacers (2017-)
4. Pat Riley, Miami Heat (1995-)
5. Daryl Morey, Houston Rockets (2007-20) • Philadelphia 76ers (2020-)
 
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