Opinion: The party that wins Hispanics will win elections. But that means really listening to them.
Memo to both Democrats and Republicans: The party that forms a durable, long-term governing coalition in this country will be the party that most fully embraces, understands and speaks to the needs of Hispanic voters. And that won’t happen simply by assuming that demography is political destiny.
Much of the coverage of the 2020 Census data released last week focused on the unprecedented decline in the nation’s White population, which since 2010 fell
not just as a percentage but in absolute numbers. Yet though the overall rate of growth was slower than it’s been in decades, the overall population of the nation grew by 7.4 percent. Half of that increase was due to growth in the number of Hispanic Americans.
Hispanics now account for 18.7 percent of the U.S. population. Hispanics
make up 25.7 percent of the youth population, representing 1 in 4 voters of the future.
Narrowing the political focus, in Texas — long heralded as a potential swing state — the Hispanic population grew
by nearly 2 million over the past decade and Whites now
outnumber Hispanics by a mere handful of residents, 11,584,597 to 11,441,717. By the time the 2024 election rolls around, if current trends hold, Hispanics will hold a small plurality in a state that Republicans must win to have any chance of an electoral college majority.
All of this would seem to bode well for Democrats, who have been winning the Hispanic vote
comfortably nationwide. Yet, I see clear warning signs for Democrats (which they may or may not heed), as well as potential opportunities for Republicans (which they seem determined to ignore).
President Biden beat Donald Trump among Hispanics
by a comfortable margin, 59 percent to 38 percent. Yet four years earlier, Hillary Clinton won Hispanics in her contest against Trump by a landslide,
66 percent to 28 percent. Despite all his “build the wall” rhetoric against Hispanic immigrants — whom he called rapists, drug smugglers and “bad hombres” — Trump grew his share of the Hispanic vote markedly.