NBA draft and free agency can't get here fast enough so niggas can stop posting about these jerseys.
2020 NBA Offseason Thread
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Can somebody be so kind?
Hater Hearst Helmsley
I AM THE GAME
If you need a starting point guard in free agency this year, I’ve got bad news – there’s one guy to get and four teams that could use him. It’s going to be difficult. And beyond that, there isn’t a whole lot of help available.
I’m starting my dollar ratings of every free agent at the point guard position, which this year is probably the sparsest position in terms of available prospects. For each player, I’ve calculated his likely 2020-21 dollar value to an average team this year, based on my BORD$ formula that I described in much greater detail here.
I’ve included every realistic potential free agent, taking into account that some players with team or player options may not actually hit free agency. (Those players are noted with a “PO” or a “TO”). Also, emphasis on realistic here — I’m not including players like Nic Batum, Otto Porter or Tony Snell, who technically have player options but would be insane to decline them and become free agents, or those like Svi Mykhailuk, where declining a team option would be similarly nutty.
I’ve also added a few overseas players and subjectively ranked them amongst their NBA peers on this list. (Also — I have a separate piece projecting what all 43 players with player or team options will do this offseason). For players with options or restricted matching rights, I’ve listed their teams. Otherwise, they are unrestricted free agents with no team attachment.
At each position, I’ve separated the free-agent class into five salary tiers, based on each player’s worth in my valuation tool:
• “Max guys” are worth $25 million or more (the lowest max contract for next season is about $27.25 million, based on a cap number of $109 million).
• “More than MLE, less than max” is everybody who makes more than $12 million and less than $25 million. The mid-level exception for next season should be just south of $10 million.
• “MLE guys” may not get exactly the full mid-level exception, but they’re in the ballpark — this is everybody who comes in between $8 million and $12 million.
• “Less than MLE, more than minimum” is everyone who stands to make between $2.6 million and $8 million. Most of these players would be candidates for the taxpayer MLE ($5.7 million) or room MLE ($4.7 million).
• “Minimum” encompasses every free agent who rates worth $2.6 million or less. The 10-year veteran minimum was $2.56 million last season. Note that while my list is inclusive, I did not literally include every free agent — there were many players on 2-ways, 10-days or the far end of the bench who are hugely unlikely to be in the league this year. We don’t need to spend time dwelling on them for free agency.
Here’s how my BORD$ formula sees the market for point guards:
I’m starting my dollar ratings of every free agent at the point guard position, which this year is probably the sparsest position in terms of available prospects. For each player, I’ve calculated his likely 2020-21 dollar value to an average team this year, based on my BORD$ formula that I described in much greater detail here.
I’ve included every realistic potential free agent, taking into account that some players with team or player options may not actually hit free agency. (Those players are noted with a “PO” or a “TO”). Also, emphasis on realistic here — I’m not including players like Nic Batum, Otto Porter or Tony Snell, who technically have player options but would be insane to decline them and become free agents, or those like Svi Mykhailuk, where declining a team option would be similarly nutty.
I’ve also added a few overseas players and subjectively ranked them amongst their NBA peers on this list. (Also — I have a separate piece projecting what all 43 players with player or team options will do this offseason). For players with options or restricted matching rights, I’ve listed their teams. Otherwise, they are unrestricted free agents with no team attachment.
At each position, I’ve separated the free-agent class into five salary tiers, based on each player’s worth in my valuation tool:
• “Max guys” are worth $25 million or more (the lowest max contract for next season is about $27.25 million, based on a cap number of $109 million).
• “More than MLE, less than max” is everybody who makes more than $12 million and less than $25 million. The mid-level exception for next season should be just south of $10 million.
• “MLE guys” may not get exactly the full mid-level exception, but they’re in the ballpark — this is everybody who comes in between $8 million and $12 million.
• “Less than MLE, more than minimum” is everyone who stands to make between $2.6 million and $8 million. Most of these players would be candidates for the taxpayer MLE ($5.7 million) or room MLE ($4.7 million).
• “Minimum” encompasses every free agent who rates worth $2.6 million or less. The 10-year veteran minimum was $2.56 million last season. Note that while my list is inclusive, I did not literally include every free agent — there were many players on 2-ways, 10-days or the far end of the bench who are hugely unlikely to be in the league this year. We don’t need to spend time dwelling on them for free agency.
Here’s how my BORD$ formula sees the market for point guards:
K
King Freeman
Guest
K
King Freeman
Guest
I haven't looked into in since hearing about but I heard it on the news that they were in deep talks.
If he won MVP as a I think 7th or 6th seed that year then I guess Luka will win next season
Dwayne
Not Like Us
What he did was impressive. Stop hating
Hater Hearst Helmsley
I AM THE GAME
SPOILER]
Tier 1: Max guys
Nobody.
Tier 2: More than MLE, less than Max
Fred VanVleet, $21,960,628
As far as point guards go, it’s a one-man market. VanVleet is the only point guard who projects to be worth starter money, putting him in a commanding position in a market where multiple teams figure to be looking at point guards. In particular, New York and Detroit loom as possibilities and both have max cap room, if he doesn’t return to Toronto.
VanVleet is good, but the other allure here is that the 26-year-old is relatively young for an unrestricted free agent, so on a three- or four-year deal, a team is figuring to lock up the best seasons of his career. His intangibles likely add luster, as his rep is as one of the league’s smartest and most respected players.
That said, there isn’t a ton of upside here, and it’s possible that VanVleet’s fit in Toronto — where he can alternate playing on or off the ball — might not work as well in a place like Detroit, where he would be asked to command the offense.
Mike Conley (PO), Utah, $13,309,260
It’s highly unlikely that Conley opts out of a final season that pays him $34.5 million. But let’s use this number as a thought exercise – it is possible that the Jazz could streamline their cap situation by agreeing to have Conley opt-out and then re-sign with a longer deal for less annual money.
Valued at $13.3 million a year for next year and presumably less in the three years following (his age 34 through 36 seasons), Conley could tack, say, $33 million onto the $34.5 million he already has coming and re-up with a four-year, $68 million deal. Is that worth it for Utah? Probably not, since this just delays the Jazz’s pain as the cap situation gets ugly once a presumed max extension for Donovan Mitchell comes on the books. But it’s definitely something they should be batting around internally.
Tier 3: Mid-level guys
Goran Dragic, $11,562,135
The Dragon looked like he’d lost a lot of his first-step zip over the past two seasons. Then the bubble happened and he seemed completely reborn. Dragic increased his value projection more than any other veteran player in the league during the bubble, more than doubling his projected value for 2020-21 and barely even staying inside my “MLE” category. While any deal with years is a risk at age 34, he’s a target for any contender.
A return to Miami is clearly the most likely outcome, but it’s also possible the Heat may flinch if the price gets high enough, and use their cap room on other targets instead. In that case, Dragic’s scoring, shooting and open-court play would make him a great fit for such teams as the Bucks and Sixers. Dallas, obviously, also looms as a choice for the second-greatest Slovenian player in league history.
Given Dragic’s age, a one-year deal or two-year deal seems the wise play, but an anxious suitor may try to go longer to lure him away from Miami. The. Heat have a strong incentive to give him a one-year deal with a team option for 2021-22, preserving their ability to offer a max contract to free agents a year from now.
Shabazz Napier, $8,045,725
This is likely more than Napier will receive on the open market since he’s perceived as both small and not a “true” point guard. He’s definitely not for everyone, as he made way too many turnovers this year and his shooting is, um, streaky.
However, Napier defends reasonably well across both guard spots and is low-key a pretty good finisher who draws fouls and converted 69.2 percent at the rim last season. He’s unusual, but the numbers say he’s pretty effective. At 29, he’d be a good one-year or two-year pickup with the room or taxpayer exception for a team that needs guard help.
Tier 4: Less than MLE, more than minimum
Trey Burke $7,131,892
A replacement player in Dallas after Philadelphia inexplicably cut him, Burke isn’t for everybody — he’s small, he’s going to pound the ball a bit, and he’ll take a lot of long 2s. (This story comes up a lot in this free-agent guard market).
Nonetheless, he’s a good choice for a second unit that has limited shot creation, or as a third point guard to step up in case of injury. Burke’s 42.7 percent 3-point shooting last season is likely a fluke, as it’s a major outlier from the rest of his career, but the other numbers are not. He scores 23.7 points per 100 for his career with a 14.1 PER, and although he’s small he’s not a horrific defender. There’s a place for him in a rotation someplace.
Reggie Jackson, $6,490,176
Mr. October resuscitated his career value once he joined the Clippers by staying healthy and occasionally trying on defense, two things that didn’t always happen in Detroit. While the playoffs exposed some of his weaknesses as a defender and floor general, he also shot 17-of-32 from 3 in the postseason after making 41.3 percent in his final 17 games with the Clips.
Don’t expect a long-term deal, as he’s 30 with a history of knee trouble. Teams will kick the tires on his health situation, but if it checks out he’s one of the best backup point guards on the market.
Jordan McLaughlin (R), Minnesota, $6,431,711
¿Qué? Yes, this number is a bullish assessment of McLaughlin, but he earned it with the quality of his play. He only played 590 minutes for Minnesota this year on a 2-way, but put up some impressive numbers – 56.9 percent on 2s, and 9.8 assists and 2.7 steals per 100 possessions. He was really good in the G League for the last two years as well.
My method has a strong regression to the mean component for low-minute players, but even after that adjustment he grades out pretty well, and he’s only 24. Minnesota will have restricted rights on him and should certainly look to ink him to a low-dollar deal as D’Angelo Russell’s backup.
D.J. Augustin $5,658,185
After another solid year in Orlando, Augustin is getting long in the tooth (33 this season) and is pretty small, so teams should be wary of a multi-year contract. But as a short-term commitment to a backup who is capable of starting 15 games, you’d have a hard time doing much better than Augustin. He’s an ace pick-and-roll guard who shoots well from the perimeter.
Jevon Carter (R), Phoenix, $5,297,342
One of the eleventy-seven options Phoenix scrolled through at backup point guard last season, Carter might have the most staying power of the bunch because he can make 3s and competes so hard defensively.
Carter isn’t a natural lead guard, which makes the right fit important. His role in Phoenix in the bubble showed where his career can gain traction: As an off-ball shooter who operates as a defensive pest against the other team’s best backcourt player. His play stabilized in the bubble games once Cameron Payne came on board to run the second unit, and with Carter’s low cap hold ($1.8 million), the Suns should be able to return him to this niche.
Shane Larkin, Anadalou Efes
This is subjectively where I would rank Larkin in this free-agent field. He’s a small, athletic guard who absolutely destroyed Europe in 2019-20 while playing for Turkish team Anadalou Efes. Larkin is clearly an NBA player but needs to find the right fit for his game, which wasn’t the case in Boston in 2017-18. He’s now making enough money in Turkey that it would take a pretty good payday to blast him out of there, so this listing is probably more me hoping than any reality.
Chris Chiozza (R), Brooklyn, $4,258,859
Brooklyn’s 2-way opened eyes by playing the best basketball of his career during a late-season cameo when the Nets had guard injuries, but his previous track record in the G League and college makes one suspicious he can keep playing that well. His bubble surge assures he’ll get more chances, however, especially with Brooklyn needing some inexpensive pieces around a pricey top seven.
J.J. Barea $3,235,855
He’s 36, so signing him to a multi-year deal is insane, but on a one-year deal Barea can be counted on to run effective pick-and-rolls with a popping big and bring some defensive feistiness (and floppiness). One presumes a one-year deal for the minimum or the biannual exception that has him back in Dallas is the most likely scenario.
Yogi Ferrell $3,191,851
Although Ferrell was largely forgotten in Sacramento the past two seasons, his results suggest he’s still playable. And he’s only 27. As a small, shoot-first guy, finding the right fit will be important. While my valuation model says he’s worth a bit more, he’s almost certainly looking at a minimum contract.
Brad Wanamaker (R), Boston, $2,931,210
The veteran version of Raul Neto below, Wanamaker is bigger and more capable of playing both guard spots, but his inability to threaten at the offensive end hammers his value. Defensively, he’s solid and crafty. He’s also 32, so there’s not a lot of upside here. However, he had a decent playoff performance for Boston that likely upholds his floor as a back-end rotation player. That surely will keep him in the league and may earn him more than the minimum. However, Boston’s roster crunch and tax situation leave it an open question whether his next contract will be as a Celtic.
Tier 1: Max guys
Nobody.
Tier 2: More than MLE, less than Max
Fred VanVleet, $21,960,628
As far as point guards go, it’s a one-man market. VanVleet is the only point guard who projects to be worth starter money, putting him in a commanding position in a market where multiple teams figure to be looking at point guards. In particular, New York and Detroit loom as possibilities and both have max cap room, if he doesn’t return to Toronto.
VanVleet is good, but the other allure here is that the 26-year-old is relatively young for an unrestricted free agent, so on a three- or four-year deal, a team is figuring to lock up the best seasons of his career. His intangibles likely add luster, as his rep is as one of the league’s smartest and most respected players.
That said, there isn’t a ton of upside here, and it’s possible that VanVleet’s fit in Toronto — where he can alternate playing on or off the ball — might not work as well in a place like Detroit, where he would be asked to command the offense.
Mike Conley (PO), Utah, $13,309,260
It’s highly unlikely that Conley opts out of a final season that pays him $34.5 million. But let’s use this number as a thought exercise – it is possible that the Jazz could streamline their cap situation by agreeing to have Conley opt-out and then re-sign with a longer deal for less annual money.
Valued at $13.3 million a year for next year and presumably less in the three years following (his age 34 through 36 seasons), Conley could tack, say, $33 million onto the $34.5 million he already has coming and re-up with a four-year, $68 million deal. Is that worth it for Utah? Probably not, since this just delays the Jazz’s pain as the cap situation gets ugly once a presumed max extension for Donovan Mitchell comes on the books. But it’s definitely something they should be batting around internally.
Tier 3: Mid-level guys
Goran Dragic, $11,562,135
The Dragon looked like he’d lost a lot of his first-step zip over the past two seasons. Then the bubble happened and he seemed completely reborn. Dragic increased his value projection more than any other veteran player in the league during the bubble, more than doubling his projected value for 2020-21 and barely even staying inside my “MLE” category. While any deal with years is a risk at age 34, he’s a target for any contender.
A return to Miami is clearly the most likely outcome, but it’s also possible the Heat may flinch if the price gets high enough, and use their cap room on other targets instead. In that case, Dragic’s scoring, shooting and open-court play would make him a great fit for such teams as the Bucks and Sixers. Dallas, obviously, also looms as a choice for the second-greatest Slovenian player in league history.
Given Dragic’s age, a one-year deal or two-year deal seems the wise play, but an anxious suitor may try to go longer to lure him away from Miami. The. Heat have a strong incentive to give him a one-year deal with a team option for 2021-22, preserving their ability to offer a max contract to free agents a year from now.
Shabazz Napier, $8,045,725
This is likely more than Napier will receive on the open market since he’s perceived as both small and not a “true” point guard. He’s definitely not for everyone, as he made way too many turnovers this year and his shooting is, um, streaky.
However, Napier defends reasonably well across both guard spots and is low-key a pretty good finisher who draws fouls and converted 69.2 percent at the rim last season. He’s unusual, but the numbers say he’s pretty effective. At 29, he’d be a good one-year or two-year pickup with the room or taxpayer exception for a team that needs guard help.
Tier 4: Less than MLE, more than minimum
Trey Burke $7,131,892
A replacement player in Dallas after Philadelphia inexplicably cut him, Burke isn’t for everybody — he’s small, he’s going to pound the ball a bit, and he’ll take a lot of long 2s. (This story comes up a lot in this free-agent guard market).
Nonetheless, he’s a good choice for a second unit that has limited shot creation, or as a third point guard to step up in case of injury. Burke’s 42.7 percent 3-point shooting last season is likely a fluke, as it’s a major outlier from the rest of his career, but the other numbers are not. He scores 23.7 points per 100 for his career with a 14.1 PER, and although he’s small he’s not a horrific defender. There’s a place for him in a rotation someplace.
Reggie Jackson, $6,490,176
Mr. October resuscitated his career value once he joined the Clippers by staying healthy and occasionally trying on defense, two things that didn’t always happen in Detroit. While the playoffs exposed some of his weaknesses as a defender and floor general, he also shot 17-of-32 from 3 in the postseason after making 41.3 percent in his final 17 games with the Clips.
Don’t expect a long-term deal, as he’s 30 with a history of knee trouble. Teams will kick the tires on his health situation, but if it checks out he’s one of the best backup point guards on the market.
Jordan McLaughlin (R), Minnesota, $6,431,711
¿Qué? Yes, this number is a bullish assessment of McLaughlin, but he earned it with the quality of his play. He only played 590 minutes for Minnesota this year on a 2-way, but put up some impressive numbers – 56.9 percent on 2s, and 9.8 assists and 2.7 steals per 100 possessions. He was really good in the G League for the last two years as well.
My method has a strong regression to the mean component for low-minute players, but even after that adjustment he grades out pretty well, and he’s only 24. Minnesota will have restricted rights on him and should certainly look to ink him to a low-dollar deal as D’Angelo Russell’s backup.
D.J. Augustin $5,658,185
After another solid year in Orlando, Augustin is getting long in the tooth (33 this season) and is pretty small, so teams should be wary of a multi-year contract. But as a short-term commitment to a backup who is capable of starting 15 games, you’d have a hard time doing much better than Augustin. He’s an ace pick-and-roll guard who shoots well from the perimeter.
Jevon Carter (R), Phoenix, $5,297,342
One of the eleventy-seven options Phoenix scrolled through at backup point guard last season, Carter might have the most staying power of the bunch because he can make 3s and competes so hard defensively.
Carter isn’t a natural lead guard, which makes the right fit important. His role in Phoenix in the bubble showed where his career can gain traction: As an off-ball shooter who operates as a defensive pest against the other team’s best backcourt player. His play stabilized in the bubble games once Cameron Payne came on board to run the second unit, and with Carter’s low cap hold ($1.8 million), the Suns should be able to return him to this niche.
Shane Larkin, Anadalou Efes
This is subjectively where I would rank Larkin in this free-agent field. He’s a small, athletic guard who absolutely destroyed Europe in 2019-20 while playing for Turkish team Anadalou Efes. Larkin is clearly an NBA player but needs to find the right fit for his game, which wasn’t the case in Boston in 2017-18. He’s now making enough money in Turkey that it would take a pretty good payday to blast him out of there, so this listing is probably more me hoping than any reality.
Chris Chiozza (R), Brooklyn, $4,258,859
Brooklyn’s 2-way opened eyes by playing the best basketball of his career during a late-season cameo when the Nets had guard injuries, but his previous track record in the G League and college makes one suspicious he can keep playing that well. His bubble surge assures he’ll get more chances, however, especially with Brooklyn needing some inexpensive pieces around a pricey top seven.
J.J. Barea $3,235,855
He’s 36, so signing him to a multi-year deal is insane, but on a one-year deal Barea can be counted on to run effective pick-and-rolls with a popping big and bring some defensive feistiness (and floppiness). One presumes a one-year deal for the minimum or the biannual exception that has him back in Dallas is the most likely scenario.
Yogi Ferrell $3,191,851
Although Ferrell was largely forgotten in Sacramento the past two seasons, his results suggest he’s still playable. And he’s only 27. As a small, shoot-first guy, finding the right fit will be important. While my valuation model says he’s worth a bit more, he’s almost certainly looking at a minimum contract.
Brad Wanamaker (R), Boston, $2,931,210
The veteran version of Raul Neto below, Wanamaker is bigger and more capable of playing both guard spots, but his inability to threaten at the offensive end hammers his value. Defensively, he’s solid and crafty. He’s also 32, so there’s not a lot of upside here. However, he had a decent playoff performance for Boston that likely upholds his floor as a back-end rotation player. That surely will keep him in the league and may earn him more than the minimum. However, Boston’s roster crunch and tax situation leave it an open question whether his next contract will be as a Celtic.
@Gene Parmesan
Hater Hearst Helmsley
I AM THE GAME
There’s more to that article if you wanna see the rest let me know
I’m not I’m just saying if they gonna change the criteria for winning MVP then it shouldn’t matter if any future MVPs have only the 10th best team in the league
Dwayne
Not Like Us
But he wasn’t. He was a playoff team and put up ass you can see incredible number despite losing a top 2 player. Don’t forget his team was less talented than those that won more games
K
King Freeman
Guest
Hater Hearst Helmsley
I AM THE GAME
I already regret it.
But he wasn’t what? The thunder had I believe the 9th or 10th best team in the league that season with stats that were inflated immensely to be inorganic
Dont be like that man lol I appreciate it
StringerBell
OG
SMDH...
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