2020 NBA Draft thread
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Any NBA team would obviously rather draft its own Steph Curry or LeBron James in the lottery, rather than its own Shaun Livingston or Tristan Thompson. But every championship team in history has featured secondary guys who complement and enhance its best players—like Livingston’s playmaking did for the Warriors and Thompson’s rebounding did for the Cavaliers. And aren’t we all watching The Last Dance, which details how the Bulls front office built a strong supporting cast around Michael Jordan? Even the all-time greats needed help to win titles. The 2020 NBA draft class lacks the type of elite one-name prospects, like Luka or Zion, that we’ve been spoiled by in recent years. But while it doesn’t have star power, it does have depth and a plethora of potential high-end role players who could develop into the missing ingredient of a championship team’s recipe.
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The 2020 NBA Draft Class Isn’t Weak—It Just Isn’t Heavy on Stars
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A.F.R.I.C.A
Active Member
@#1hiphopjunki3 what you think about Tyrell Terry. Seen him pop up on a few mocks lately. Seems like he comes from tjst Curry tree
#1hiphopjunki3
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From what I've read about him is he shot great at Stanford this season. He is a smaller guy than Curry and even weighs less than Trae Young! I think I posted The Stepien websites scouting report on him and if I didn't I will.
He has to tighten up his handles and finishing at the rim. He is gonna most likely get drafted late 1st round due to this draft and the way shooting is such a premium. Defensively he is gonna be a liability due to his size and lack of athleticism
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Offensive Summary:
- Really good and versatile shooter with the ability to spot up, shoot off-movement and off-the-dribble
- Shows impressive (but inconsistent) shotmaking off-the-dribble in the pick and roll
- Brings value in transition as a decision-maker and a scorer
- Doesn’t get to the basket often, but is a good finisher with solid touch when he attacks
- Good passer and has solid vision, but not elite in either area
- More comfortable passing from a standstill or off the catch than out of the pick and roll
- Has average handles and burst, but a solid first step
- Hustles to contest shots and uses length to get a hand up
- Knows the fundamentals of team defense (stunt, tag roll man, etc.), but helps off of his man a bit too often
- Quick feet on the perimeter, but lack of strength limits ability to stay in front of people
- Inconsistent with pick and roll defense. Shown solid technique, but occasionally gets hit hard by screens and can’t recover in time
- Strength and size are concerns
- Can he add enough strength? Will the added strength help him attack the basket more on offense and also help him defensively?
- If he doesn’t add enough strength and he is a liability on defense, will his offense be good enough to outweigh it?
- Will his size affect his movement shooting?
- Rotation / Starter / Fringe
Tyrell Terry Scouting Report - The Stepien
Offensive Summary: Really good and versatile shooter with the ability to spot up, shoot off-movement and off-the-dribble Shows impressive (but inconsistent) shotmaking off-the-dribble in the pick and roll Brings value...
www.thestepien.com
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Outcomes:
Defensive Role: Not a versatile defender. Can only defend guards and won’t be able to defend elite guards. Might have to find a way to hide him on defense, but adding strength is important. Learning when and when not to help as a team defender will improve his impact as well.
Athleticism / Frame Overview:
www.thestepien.com
- High: Dynamic shooter who can spot up, shoot off-the-dribble, and shoot off-movement. Can create for himself and others out of the pick and roll. Ability to play on and off the ball gives lineup flexibility. Dangerous threat in transition. Added strength helps him hold his own defensively, while being more aggressive attacking the basket.
- Medium: Really good off-ball shooter who can spot up and shoot off-movement. Has the ability to shoot off-the-dribble, but has some inconsistencies. Needs to be hid on defense because of lack of strength, but his shooting outweighs his defense.
- Low: Off-ball player who can spot up shot and shoot off-movement, but his size limits him. Doesn’t add needed strength makes him a liability on defense.
Defensive Role: Not a versatile defender. Can only defend guards and won’t be able to defend elite guards. Might have to find a way to hide him on defense, but adding strength is important. Learning when and when not to help as a team defender will improve his impact as well.
Athleticism / Frame Overview:
- Decent athlete. Solid when getting downhill. Good speed after multiple steps, but initial acceleration isn’t great. Decent first step, but mostly because of the angle he takes rather than burst. Shows some vertical pop, but strength limits him.
- Not a great frame. Could use improvements and added strength, although not sure how much muscle he can add.
Tyrell Terry Scouting Report - The Stepien
Offensive Summary: Really good and versatile shooter with the ability to spot up, shoot off-movement and off-the-dribble Shows impressive (but inconsistent) shotmaking off-the-dribble in the pick and roll Brings value...
www.thestepien.com
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Ability to Get into the Lane / Finishing: Doesn’t get into the lane as often as you would like, but doesn’t avoid attacking. He’s an aggressive driver for his size and has really good touch with some crafty finishes. Good with up-and-under layups. He shot 61.5% (32-52) on halfcourt shots around the basket. Of those 20 misses, 11 of them were blocked. Even though he got blocked on 11 of his 52 attempts, he does a solid job at using the rim to protect himself from getting blocked by rim protectors. Sometimes he’ll still get blocked because of his size though. If teams are overplaying and trying to deny him the ball on the perimeter, he makes smart backdoors to get easy layups. Additionally, he’s good at attacking off the catch with a quick rip through or a solid first step to get to the basket.
Shooting: Really impressive shooter with good form. He shot 40.8% (62-152) as a freshman on good volume. His form isn’t 100% consistent from shot to shot. He sometimes kicks his right foot out or speeds up his release, but he’s been a consistent shooter regardless. His ability to adjust and still makes shots makes him such a dangerous shooter. He has a quick release, which allows him to get shots off with defenders closing out tightly. He’s also able to extend his range deep and make NBA 3s. It isn’t rare for right-handed shooters to sometimes have their right foot/leg come forward after their shot at times, but it seems to happen more often with Tyrell than others. It hasn’t affected his production and should be an easy fix if it becomes a problem. Below is a chart of his ‘Spot Up No Dribble’ shooting numbers.
Shot Versatility (Movement Shooting / Off-The-Dribble): Dynamic shooter with really good versatility. His shot versatility at his age is very impressive. He’s able to shoot off-movement (off-screens, handoffs, etc.) and off-the-dribble. As shown above in his Synergy profile, he was impressive in ‘Off Screen’ play types on limited volume. He does a really good job at getting his feet set quickly and going straight into his shot. He showed the ability to read the defense and come off screens for good looks. There were a few times where he came straight off the screen and turned mid-air to square to the basket, giving his very little time to recover to contest the shot. Given that he’s smaller than most movement shooters (Redick, Korver, etc.), it might be more important that he does a better job at setting up the use of a screen or can full speed to his spots, so he doesn’t deal with tight contests.
Flashes impressive shotmaking off-the-dribble with NBA range, but needs improvement and more consistency. He has inconsistent mechanics shooting off-the-dribble, mainly with his lower body. Goes for a lot of pull-ups where he isn’t squared to the basket and turns mid-air. Also has his right leg kick out a lot. He’s comfortable stepping left, right into his shot or right, left. Does a good job at using pump fakes and jabs off-the-catch to get defenders to bite and opens up dribble pull-ups. He’s capable of punishing defenders for going over and under the screen, which opens up a lot on offense.
www.thestepien.com
Shooting: Really impressive shooter with good form. He shot 40.8% (62-152) as a freshman on good volume. His form isn’t 100% consistent from shot to shot. He sometimes kicks his right foot out or speeds up his release, but he’s been a consistent shooter regardless. His ability to adjust and still makes shots makes him such a dangerous shooter. He has a quick release, which allows him to get shots off with defenders closing out tightly. He’s also able to extend his range deep and make NBA 3s. It isn’t rare for right-handed shooters to sometimes have their right foot/leg come forward after their shot at times, but it seems to happen more often with Tyrell than others. It hasn’t affected his production and should be an easy fix if it becomes a problem. Below is a chart of his ‘Spot Up No Dribble’ shooting numbers.
Shot Versatility (Movement Shooting / Off-The-Dribble): Dynamic shooter with really good versatility. His shot versatility at his age is very impressive. He’s able to shoot off-movement (off-screens, handoffs, etc.) and off-the-dribble. As shown above in his Synergy profile, he was impressive in ‘Off Screen’ play types on limited volume. He does a really good job at getting his feet set quickly and going straight into his shot. He showed the ability to read the defense and come off screens for good looks. There were a few times where he came straight off the screen and turned mid-air to square to the basket, giving his very little time to recover to contest the shot. Given that he’s smaller than most movement shooters (Redick, Korver, etc.), it might be more important that he does a better job at setting up the use of a screen or can full speed to his spots, so he doesn’t deal with tight contests.
Flashes impressive shotmaking off-the-dribble with NBA range, but needs improvement and more consistency. He has inconsistent mechanics shooting off-the-dribble, mainly with his lower body. Goes for a lot of pull-ups where he isn’t squared to the basket and turns mid-air. Also has his right leg kick out a lot. He’s comfortable stepping left, right into his shot or right, left. Does a good job at using pump fakes and jabs off-the-catch to get defenders to bite and opens up dribble pull-ups. He’s capable of punishing defenders for going over and under the screen, which opens up a lot on offense.
Tyrell Terry Scouting Report - The Stepien
Offensive Summary: Really good and versatile shooter with the ability to spot up, shoot off-movement and off-the-dribble Shows impressive (but inconsistent) shotmaking off-the-dribble in the pick and roll Brings value...
www.thestepien.com
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Reading Screens: Even though the volume was limited, he has shown a general understanding of reading the defense when running off screens. Most of his off-screen attempts came from coming straight off / curling the screen with the defender trailing or fading to the corner with the defender trying to cheat and jump the passing lane.
Handle: Doesn’t have an advanced handle. Has some shiftiness and craft to his handle, but loses control of the ball at times when trying to makes moves and can’t take advantage because it takes him a half a second to regain control of the ball. Has shown some nice moves and likes to use a behind the back dribble to stop and create space. It’s tough to improve to being an elite ballhandler, but small improvements in tightening up his dribble could help. It should help him create more space and get better looks out of the pick and roll.
Self-Creation: Only had 10 isolation attempts on the season, so didn’t get the chance to show much self-creation, but his average handles and lack of burst makes it tough for him to create shots for himself. Able to scoring on the ball out of the PnR (see later).
Passing: Good passer with good vision, but not elite in either area. Has shown that he can hit open teammates in a variety of situations. Really good passer and decision maker in transition. Has the awareness to look up in transition and hit pass ahead passes to teammates for easy layup. Has solid touch and good placement, especially on entry passes over the top. Seems to read the floor better and make quicker decisions when making a decision off-the-catch or from a standstill instead of dribbling out of the PnR
Pick and Roll Passing: As mentioned above, good passer with good vision, but not elite in either area. Makes some solid passes (pocket passes, over the top, wraparound, etc.), but misses some reads where he has a man wide open on the wing. Really comfortable with pocket passes and does a good job at leading his big rolling to the basket so it doesn’t take them out of rhythm. Capable of passing with his left hand but normally does it from a standstill after picking up his dribble and passing out to the pop man. He has had a couple of live dribble left handed baseline passes. Accuracy with left hand could use improvement, but reason for optimism. Had one pass with his left-hand that was crosscourt, but it was after he picked up his dribble. The pass wasn’t accurate and took Spencer Jones out of his spot.
Pick and Roll Scoring: Opens up his ability to shoot off-the-dribble. While his shooting off-the-dribble is inconsistent, he’s able to punish defenses for going under screens or over screens. He is efficient when attacking the basket out of the PnR, but does not attack the basket as much as you’d like. Only 24.5% of his FGAs out of the PnR are around the basket, but he is shooting 57.7% (15-26) on those attempts. Improving his handle could help get easier shots off-the-dribble and could open up more lanes to the basket.
www.thestepien.com
Handle: Doesn’t have an advanced handle. Has some shiftiness and craft to his handle, but loses control of the ball at times when trying to makes moves and can’t take advantage because it takes him a half a second to regain control of the ball. Has shown some nice moves and likes to use a behind the back dribble to stop and create space. It’s tough to improve to being an elite ballhandler, but small improvements in tightening up his dribble could help. It should help him create more space and get better looks out of the pick and roll.
Self-Creation: Only had 10 isolation attempts on the season, so didn’t get the chance to show much self-creation, but his average handles and lack of burst makes it tough for him to create shots for himself. Able to scoring on the ball out of the PnR (see later).
Passing: Good passer with good vision, but not elite in either area. Has shown that he can hit open teammates in a variety of situations. Really good passer and decision maker in transition. Has the awareness to look up in transition and hit pass ahead passes to teammates for easy layup. Has solid touch and good placement, especially on entry passes over the top. Seems to read the floor better and make quicker decisions when making a decision off-the-catch or from a standstill instead of dribbling out of the PnR
Pick and Roll Passing: As mentioned above, good passer with good vision, but not elite in either area. Makes some solid passes (pocket passes, over the top, wraparound, etc.), but misses some reads where he has a man wide open on the wing. Really comfortable with pocket passes and does a good job at leading his big rolling to the basket so it doesn’t take them out of rhythm. Capable of passing with his left hand but normally does it from a standstill after picking up his dribble and passing out to the pop man. He has had a couple of live dribble left handed baseline passes. Accuracy with left hand could use improvement, but reason for optimism. Had one pass with his left-hand that was crosscourt, but it was after he picked up his dribble. The pass wasn’t accurate and took Spencer Jones out of his spot.
Pick and Roll Scoring: Opens up his ability to shoot off-the-dribble. While his shooting off-the-dribble is inconsistent, he’s able to punish defenses for going under screens or over screens. He is efficient when attacking the basket out of the PnR, but does not attack the basket as much as you’d like. Only 24.5% of his FGAs out of the PnR are around the basket, but he is shooting 57.7% (15-26) on those attempts. Improving his handle could help get easier shots off-the-dribble and could open up more lanes to the basket.
Tyrell Terry Scouting Report - The Stepien
Offensive Summary: Really good and versatile shooter with the ability to spot up, shoot off-movement and off-the-dribble Shows impressive (but inconsistent) shotmaking off-the-dribble in the pick and roll Brings value...
www.thestepien.com
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Perimeter Defense: Shows flashes, but not great defending the perimeter. Has quick feet, but gives up easy drives to the basket too often. Good flashes on the perimeter include him moving his feet quickly and cutting off drives to the basket. His lack of strength makes it easy for defenders to turn the corner on him or just drive through him. Seems like he doesn’t always try defending the perimeter which also results in him getting beat. Does a good job at getting a hand up to contest shots. Adding strength would definitely improve his ability to defend the perimeter because sometimes his feet are quick enough to cut off a drive, but he gets pushed off from his spot and his man gets enough space to get a shot off.
Off Ball / Team Defense: Knows the fundamentals of team defense, but needs to learn when and when not to help. Gets caught over-helping. Does a good job at stunting and digging. Recognizes drives so he steps over and tries to draw charges. He will sometimes help off of his man too much on the strong side, which leads to open 3s. Does a good job at dropping down or tagging/helping on roll man to try take away passes to big men. He’ll get some steals because of it, but if a pass gets through, he can’t offer resistance because of size. Tends to lose his man off-ball a bit too often.
Chasing Around Screens: Solid technique. Does a good job at getting low and using proper footwork to run around screens off the ball, but could improve the angles he takes. Sometimes he is half a second too late to recognize his man is running off screens so he gives up a head start, which could lead to just enough time for a good look. In these scenarios, he does a good job at hustling and trying to recover to get a hand up to contest the shot.
www.thestepien.com
Off Ball / Team Defense: Knows the fundamentals of team defense, but needs to learn when and when not to help. Gets caught over-helping. Does a good job at stunting and digging. Recognizes drives so he steps over and tries to draw charges. He will sometimes help off of his man too much on the strong side, which leads to open 3s. Does a good job at dropping down or tagging/helping on roll man to try take away passes to big men. He’ll get some steals because of it, but if a pass gets through, he can’t offer resistance because of size. Tends to lose his man off-ball a bit too often.
Chasing Around Screens: Solid technique. Does a good job at getting low and using proper footwork to run around screens off the ball, but could improve the angles he takes. Sometimes he is half a second too late to recognize his man is running off screens so he gives up a head start, which could lead to just enough time for a good look. In these scenarios, he does a good job at hustling and trying to recover to get a hand up to contest the shot.
Tyrell Terry Scouting Report - The Stepien
Offensive Summary: Really good and versatile shooter with the ability to spot up, shoot off-movement and off-the-dribble Shows impressive (but inconsistent) shotmaking off-the-dribble in the pick and roll Brings value...
www.thestepien.com
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PnR Defense: Inconsistent technique, but decent flashes. Lack of strength hurts his ability to get over screens though. Gets hit hard by screens, which sometimes leads to open midrange shots for opposing teams when Stanford’s big is in drop coverage. Does a good job at playing up on man and trying to deny the use of PnR. Stanford ices almost every side-PnR and tries to forces players baseline, which is important to know when evaluating. There are times where Terry still lets his man get middle.
Shot Contests / Closeouts: Inconsistent with shot contests and closeouts. Don’t have an official measurement for his wingspan, but it should be at least around average for his size and it seems to alter some shots. Needs to improve discipline and consistency. Bites on pump fakes and gets beat easily off the catch a little too much. He hustles on his closeouts and does a good job getting his hand up when he sees the defender is going for a shot, but gives up too early if they don’t shoot, which results in giving up lanes to the basket. As mentioned in the ‘Off Ball / Team Defense’ section, he tends to lose his man a bit too often off the ball, which will put him in a bad position with contesting shots.
Rebounding: Decent rebounder for size, but doesn’t get too many contested rebounds. Normally gets rebounds from dropping down on shots to help crash the boards. Doesn’t necessarily get a body on someone when he drops down, which leaves him prone to giving up an offensive rebound here and there, but he’ll sometimes check to see if his man is crashing the glass.
www.thestepien.com
Shot Contests / Closeouts: Inconsistent with shot contests and closeouts. Don’t have an official measurement for his wingspan, but it should be at least around average for his size and it seems to alter some shots. Needs to improve discipline and consistency. Bites on pump fakes and gets beat easily off the catch a little too much. He hustles on his closeouts and does a good job getting his hand up when he sees the defender is going for a shot, but gives up too early if they don’t shoot, which results in giving up lanes to the basket. As mentioned in the ‘Off Ball / Team Defense’ section, he tends to lose his man a bit too often off the ball, which will put him in a bad position with contesting shots.
Rebounding: Decent rebounder for size, but doesn’t get too many contested rebounds. Normally gets rebounds from dropping down on shots to help crash the boards. Doesn’t necessarily get a body on someone when he drops down, which leaves him prone to giving up an offensive rebound here and there, but he’ll sometimes check to see if his man is crashing the glass.
Tyrell Terry Scouting Report - The Stepien
Offensive Summary: Really good and versatile shooter with the ability to spot up, shoot off-movement and off-the-dribble Shows impressive (but inconsistent) shotmaking off-the-dribble in the pick and roll Brings value...
www.thestepien.com
Focal Point
Negusa Negast
How things looking for one of the local boys round here, Myles Powell. First it was Greg Grant, then after a good while it was Dahntay Jones, Christian Burns, Jason Thompson, then Malachi Richardson, Devon Reed, and Charles Cooke.
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Hollinger on Merrill:
To be sure, there are concerns here. Merrill is average at best defensively, even in college, and he may turn out to be too flammable at the pro level for his offensive value to offset.
That said, his production and skill level suggest his draft stock is far too low. Let’s start with the fact that in our quest to find the next Duncan Robinson or Davis Bertans, someone who can launch multitudinous 3s with 40 percent accuracy, Merrill has some serious possibilities. He shot 41.0 percent from 3 and 89.3 percent from the line last season, and his career numbers from 3 are even better (42.0 percent). This wasn’t cherrypicking either — many of his attempts were off the dribble because he was the team’s primary shot-creator, and he was a volume launcher who took nearly seven a game. He has a great shot fake, too.
We’ve had a lot of good college shooters, however, and many of them were unplayable at the NBA level. The difference in Merrill’s case is how good he is on the ball for his size. He’s a 6-5 guard who appears to have decent length, and is extremely comfortably coming off of curls and playing in pick-and-rolls. While he doesn’t have the dynamism to get to the rim consistently, even with a screen, he makes the right decision darn near every time. He played in the mid-major Mountain West Conference, but the tape says that even in games against athletic SEC teams like Florida and LSU he was the best player on the court.
The numbers are pretty emphatic here. Merrill’s rate of 6.5 assists per 100 possession is a really high figure for a wing player who is supposedly just taking jump shots, but what stands out even more is his piddling 9.0 percent Turnover Rate. He’s making plays while hardly ever making mistakes. The only significant prospect with a lower Turnover Rate is Florida State’s Devin Vassell, and Vassell is a guaranteed lottery pick. Merrill is going in the late second round.
Again, Merrill was doing this in a high-usage role that saw him average 32.6 points and 6.5 assists per 100 possessions, while knocking down 41 percent of his 3s and shooting 51.5 percent on 2s. Obviously, Merrill won’t be a primary ballhandler at the NBA level, but the numbers above bode well for his capacity to operate as a second-side playmaker who has a Plan B if he’s not open from 3.
Merrill’s rebound-block-steal numbers aren’t great and signify that he’ll likely face an athletic deficit, and that correctly dampens his draft stock a bit. But in a league increasingly tilted toward skill, Merrill has it in bunches. I don’t know where that puts him on my final board yet, but at worst he’s a second-round sleeper who has been significantly undervalued. And I strongly suspect that not nearly enough people saw him this year
theathletic.com
To be sure, there are concerns here. Merrill is average at best defensively, even in college, and he may turn out to be too flammable at the pro level for his offensive value to offset.
That said, his production and skill level suggest his draft stock is far too low. Let’s start with the fact that in our quest to find the next Duncan Robinson or Davis Bertans, someone who can launch multitudinous 3s with 40 percent accuracy, Merrill has some serious possibilities. He shot 41.0 percent from 3 and 89.3 percent from the line last season, and his career numbers from 3 are even better (42.0 percent). This wasn’t cherrypicking either — many of his attempts were off the dribble because he was the team’s primary shot-creator, and he was a volume launcher who took nearly seven a game. He has a great shot fake, too.
We’ve had a lot of good college shooters, however, and many of them were unplayable at the NBA level. The difference in Merrill’s case is how good he is on the ball for his size. He’s a 6-5 guard who appears to have decent length, and is extremely comfortably coming off of curls and playing in pick-and-rolls. While he doesn’t have the dynamism to get to the rim consistently, even with a screen, he makes the right decision darn near every time. He played in the mid-major Mountain West Conference, but the tape says that even in games against athletic SEC teams like Florida and LSU he was the best player on the court.
The numbers are pretty emphatic here. Merrill’s rate of 6.5 assists per 100 possession is a really high figure for a wing player who is supposedly just taking jump shots, but what stands out even more is his piddling 9.0 percent Turnover Rate. He’s making plays while hardly ever making mistakes. The only significant prospect with a lower Turnover Rate is Florida State’s Devin Vassell, and Vassell is a guaranteed lottery pick. Merrill is going in the late second round.
Again, Merrill was doing this in a high-usage role that saw him average 32.6 points and 6.5 assists per 100 possessions, while knocking down 41 percent of his 3s and shooting 51.5 percent on 2s. Obviously, Merrill won’t be a primary ballhandler at the NBA level, but the numbers above bode well for his capacity to operate as a second-side playmaker who has a Plan B if he’s not open from 3.
Merrill’s rebound-block-steal numbers aren’t great and signify that he’ll likely face an athletic deficit, and that correctly dampens his draft stock a bit. But in a league increasingly tilted toward skill, Merrill has it in bunches. I don’t know where that puts him on my final board yet, but at worst he’s a second-round sleeper who has been significantly undervalued. And I strongly suspect that not nearly enough people saw him this year
Hollinger: Five takes on NBA Draft prospects where I’m against the consensus
In comparing his evaluation of prospects to where they are ranked by the most prominent draftologists, Hollinger noticed some differences.
theathletic.com