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2020 NBA Draft thread

Finishing: Not a very good finisher – there some touch flashes, but for the flashes there are also plenty of odd misses. Touch consistency isn’t there…which is odd given his touch on his jumper. Does not finish around well-contested shots. Lacks pop in the paint (6 shots blocked in the paint in the HC against only 1 dunk), does not use body that well through finishes / on drives (though there are flashes). He shows flashes of some crafty finishes (step-throughs and shielding the ball from the rim protector), but they are mere flashes and while it helps his finishing in college, the lack of vertical athleticism concerns me. Appears to me mostly right hand dominant, but has had a few nice lefty finishes as well. Does a nice job being physical, staying on his path, and dislodging defenders on his drives. Some extra spacing in the paint should help with finishing, but he’s also forcing up some attempts that simply shouldn’t be made – he’s just missing open passing lanes. Not really someone who will get to the paint off dribble moves – more of a rip and go / straight line drive attacker. He was 8/13 through January 30th on catch and drives which is way better than the 8/21 he was on all other half court attacks (non-post ups or putbacks), so attacking closing defenders could help alleviate the finishing concerns.

Shooting: Elite jump shooter who is in my opinion the best movement shooter in the draft by a solid amount. Really nice job running off multiple screens and reading the defense to find the area to cut to and which way to use the screen(s). Smooth looking shot with consistent and nice form (though maybe a very slight hitch off the bounce). Contesting him does not seem to faze him at all à his shots really just look like pure muscle memory. Nice balance and energy transference in his lower body. Can shoot coming off a turn / screen from either direction (over either shoulder). Nice job squaring up in the lower body on his jumper, including when he’s running off screens – sets himself well, though the quickness of the set through release can vary…sometimes it’s a quick set + release, other times it’s not. Shooting arm is almost always lined up with the basket and has beautiful wrist action on the shot. I don’t think this is something he has to change, but he brings his legs in on his jumper, sometimes clicking his ankles or feet together. Also, he’s not someone who just stands around waiting for the ball – he likes moving around a lot, which gives him some added gravity as a decoy.

Shot Versatility
: Very versatile shooter and is already a deadeye shooter pretty much all around. Has shown the ability to play in a movement heavy role and provide immense horizontal gravity at Vanderbilt, while doing it very efficiently. Coach Stackhouse really wanted to use him this year running off movement, and Nesmith has done an awesome job playing his role – he’s running off difficult multi-option screens, flares, floppy action, pindowns, cross screens, off double screens, etc, so he’s way more than just a C&S spacer and is always in motion.

In terms of what he can provide in addition to C&S and movement shooting, he can shoot off the bounce with either hand (though the results are not consistent yet, there is plenty of reason to buy it going forward) and when defenses close on him, he does a nice job using a pump fake/jab step + stepbacks or sidesteps to create space. He has advanced footwork for a shooter, especially for someone his age, but his footwork / release isn’t always the quickest. He’s had 5 jumpers blocked (4 from 3), and it seemed like on all of these, he misjudged how quickly the defender is getting to him – this is something that he can work on


 
Shot IQ: Good shot IQ and he knows his role. He might force a look on drives (and / or miss passing lanes), but it’s not that often…and, though it’s not an excuse, it’s because his vision is limited and not because he likes taking bad shots. Given that his projected role going forward will likely be a movement shooter, he will not have many (if any) opportunities to create for himself – worrying about him forcing shots in the NBA is, in my opinion, a non-issue. He generally takes what the defense gives him, or what he can take from the defense with a few dribbles off the look he was trying to get (side-step, stepback, etc). Even though he’s a very heavy jump shooter (72.5% of his shots are jumpers), the shot location on the jumpers looks great for his future role – 10 jumpers under 17 feet, 9 jumpers from 17 feet out to 3, and then 105 3-point attempts. I think the shots from 17 feet out to 3 might go up a bit as defenses try to force him off the 3-point line, but this should be a shot he should be able to hit with regularity. As mentioned earlier, the main point here is he knows his role – he’s not going to ISO guys and get them out on an island. Whoever drafts him will not have to worry about him stopping the offense or taking “bad shots” because aside from the occasional forced drive / drive where he misses passing lanes, he doesn’t force much.

Handle: His handle isn’t good and needs tightening up (especially when creating for himself), but I think it’s important to separate his handle into two areas: ISO / creation handle and perimeter separation handle. For Nesmith, his “ISO handle”, is not very good – his lack of burst hurts him, but he’s also not very creative with his handle going downhill and is more of a straight-line driver who does not adjust well on fly. Basic crosses (in front, through legs, etc) into downhill attacks in a straight line is the most common dribble move used when creating for himself – not someone who is going to piece together multiple dribble moves to get by someone. Though he does shield the defender away from the ball, I think this is at least partially due to not being comfortable dribbling in tight spaces / against pressure (or even against his man sliding) because he tends to shield when there is no reason to in conjunction with the ball doesn’t really look tight on drives + getting away from him at times.
In terms of creating separation on the perimeter to get his jumper off, his handle and footwork are both nice. When defenses fly by him on a shot fake, he does a great job creating extra space with the side-step. He also has a nice stepback / crossover into a jumper to make a little bit of extra room when needed. He’s had a few advanced moves on the perimeter as well such as a jab step right off a catch, dribble into a side-step, finishing that move off with a stepback J à results are mixed here, but he has the footwork down really well and the handle is tight here.

Passing: Not a good passer – he makes simple reads…that’s really it. I don’t think his accuracy or touch is very good, either. Tries to force passes leading to turnovers…should really just stick with easy ones. He can make some basic drive and kicks and drop-offs, but he misses plenty of passes that he should have made – I just don’t think he sees the floor well. Not a bad swing passer, including passes to the interior and quick perimeter swings (much larger sample size of him doing this last year). Only 7 PnR passing attempts this year, but only 3 of them involved anything outside of a same-side perimeter kickout. He showed a decent pocket pass on 2 of them (other was a jump pass to a roll), but he’s not a creator and won’t be used as one. Last year he was the same type of passer in PnR – no advanced reads or even many well-placed roll reads, mostly perimeter passes. Not a bad passer in transition. All in all, he’s way more of a play finisher than a playmaker, and was used as such at Vanderbilt and will likely be used in the same role in the NBA


 
Awareness / Team Defense: Pretty high IQ and is a smart team defender – does a nice job rotating on the perimeter / on drives if the ballhandler beat his man and rotates well to the paint. For the most part, he does a nice job playing the opposite block (should lead well to 2-9ing) when his man is 2+ passes away, but there are occasions when he’s late to the rim or the perimeter because he’s sticking with his man who is 2+ passes away / standing in the far corner, though these are not common occurrences. He’s not a rim protector at the actual rim, but he does a nice job positioning himself a few feet in front of the rim / around the circle, going straight up, and getting underneath the player attempting the shot and acting as a deterrent. Does a nice job stunting on the perimeter. Prone to losing man his man off movement due to ball watching. Showed some nice flashes playing / anticipating the passing lanes this year + did a nice job using his wingspan in the passing lanes to get steals, deflections, and take away passing opportunities. Small sample size with the increased steal rate (also against not great competition, for the most part), but the flashes were nice

Rim Protection: Does a nice job for his size rotating to protect the rim, though he relies more on positioning and making the opposing player uncomfortable than meeting guys at the rim. His lack of vertical pop will likely preclude him from being a high level rim protector, but relative to his position as a 2/3, I can see him being solid-good. His “rim protection” will be more along the lines of a deterrent and beating players to the paint and making their attempts difficult by crowding them + using his length. Does a nice job using his body in the paint and on drives to dislodge / make opponents uncomfortable.

PnR Defense: In terms of getting over screens, Nesmith does a nice job fighting over the top with his strength…though he does not really get skinny going over the top and tends to turn his body at the POA, both of which open him up to being rung up on screens when the ballhandler does a good job of limiting space and/or the screener sets a wide and strong screen. Nesmith does a nice job trying to get back to the ballhandler if he is playing from behind / on the hip and uses his length to make things difficult for the ballhandler. Digging into the footwork gets a bit dicey, though – in addition to crossing his feet, when the he sometimes adds another step at the point of attack, which slows him down in coverage. Does not really force the ballhandler away from the screen, or middle of the court…would like to see him do this more often. Sometimes expects a switch when there isn’t one / does not recover to the big if there is a switch – communication issue, maybe? Has some switchability due to strength and wingspan. When he goes under the screen, he usually does a nice job getting back in the action, again using his length to contest shots and simply making an effort. The biggest takeaway from his PnR defense is he tries, though needs to clean up his footwork and communication with teammates.

 
Shot Contests / Closeouts: I thought he did a nice job closing out on 3s. Made smart rotations on the perimeter, does a nice job stunting and helping out when needed & recovering to his man, and does a nice job closing out under control. Though Nesmith has the occasional out of control closeout, or lazy close when the player receiving the ball is too far away, on the whole, Nesmith does a nice job here. As with his other defensive limitations, however, his athleticism will be his biggest limiter here, as going from closing out to sliding and moving with the ballhandler does prove difficult.

Off Ball Defense: Generally speaking, it’s solid – he does a nice job rotating in help defense (more detail above). His off ball movement/screen defense on his man though needs some work – navigating screens can be an issue (weird angles, not staying low), staying with his man running off movement / screens can be an issue due to athletic limitations, and is prone to being caught flat footed and/or ball watching at times (though this is not too common). Needs to hone in on technique work navigating screens (taking correct angle, dip shoulders more often, etc) and usually gets hit by the screen, forcing him to get through and recover…which he does pretty well

Man (ISO) Defense: Though a willing defender with solid reactions in his stance / when he is ready to move, his athletic limitations hurt him here. To start, his hips are not great, thus opening him up to change of direction problems. Compounding this issue is his poor quickness and crossing his feet to slide, which opens up other issues: change of direction issues, harder to stop and go, easier to be pushed off spot, etc. (See more below on footwork.) He does a nice job forcing the ballhandler to go in the direction he’s shading, but the footwork staying with the ballhandler is not good*. Nesmith does do a nice job contesting the shot when it goes up, though. (Quick note on the shading – though it works in the NCAA well, NBA players might be able to exploit this attacking his top hip, thus drawing the foul.) He’s prone to getting caught flat-footed / out of his stance on drives.

Footwork: Not a fan of his footwork in space – it needs work, from improving actual technique (sliding, stay on front half – 2/3 of feet, etc), improving lateral quickness (if there is room to grow here), and his hips aren’t very good (his hip turns looks to be a full two-motion movement with moving pieces instead of a fluid movement / one with less moving pieces). His first action moving laterally is crossing his feet…which I think might be a mechanism for him to help get around his lack of actual quickness / quick feet and help him get downhill faster than he otherwise normally would. He’s stuck between a rock and a hard place here though because he’s not light on his feet, but the crossing feet takes time to do, so he’s playing from behind or on the ballhandler’s hip by the time he’s moving well, and it opens up other issues due to poor technique such as a diminished ability to stop and go and potential to be pushed off his spot easier. Nesmith does do a solid job contesting on the move, though. His PnR footwork is hit or miss – sometimes adds an extra step to get over the top (which slows him down a bit), crosses his feet, and turns his body when trying to get over the top…but uses his strength to help alleviate the mistakes and weaknesses

 
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Athleticism / Frame Overview: Good and strong athlete. Quick feet laterally, fast in a straight line, and very quick reaction times. Love his hip turns – very fluid here. Quick hands. Has solid burst (first step), but not great – some nice flashes from a standstill / going downhill, but it’s not consistent.

Mentality Overview: Competitor on both ends of the court and a real “pros pro” – insanely hard work ethic. Someone who brings it every game on both ends – don’t need to worry about taking nights off. Puts pressure on opposing defenses with his engine-style game and gets into players on defense. He flashes the ability to really try and get back in the play if playing from behind on a play, but I would like to see a more consistent effort – doesn’t always try to get back if he thinks he’s dead in the water / if he has teammates looking to help.

Offensive Role: Offensive engine. He’s someone who will always put pressure on the opposing defenses with his aggressiveness on offense. Not a great passer, but is better than he showed at UNC – lack of spacing and shooters really hurt him here (although he also did miss a good amount of passing lanes on drives). Needs to clean up shot selection a bit both on jumpers and drives into the paint – see passing lanes better, maybe “Nash” the paint a bit more, and stop taking some inefficient jumpers (though UNC’s offense essentially enabled him to do whatever he wanted to on offense). Good shooter on and off ball going back to his HS tape. Not a great movement shooter, but he has shown that ability – this will allow him to play with other primary creators on offense

Defensive Role: Point of attack defender (if he cleans up PnR defense a bit), probably only a 1 position defender due to size limitations. High level team defender / weakside rim protector. Might be able to defend some smaller 2s, but not normal sized 2s. I actually buy Anthony being a positive defender going forward on and off ball. Not a lockdown, but a good+ defender. Love his quickness and competitiveness when he’s locked in, though needs to stay consistent here (can bow out of plays if he’s beaten, though he shown solid recoveries when he wants to) and improve his footwork / technique at point of attack in PnR – instead of sliding, he crosses feet from time to time and turns body into the screen instead of beating over the top or sliding (both of which he can do, as he’s shown he can). He is prone to losing his man off screens and zoning out a bit, but he makes some really awesome rotations both on the perimeter and at the rim – had some of the best rim protection rotations I’ve seen from any G prospect in this year’s class

 
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Finishing: Finishing hasn’t been good in college, but I think it will be solid based on his HS/AAU film where he had the vertical pop and strength to finish through opposing rim protectors. Cole was only 8/27 in the HC (excluding postups and putbacks on the offensive glass), which is bad…and only 5/19 out of isolation and PnR. However, the numbers are a bit misleading. While he didn’t finish well in the paint, and missed passing lanes, it wasn’t entirely his fault – UNC’s spacing has been very poor all year long, shooting 29.4% from 3 on the year. When you add the complete lack of spacing to UNC playing with 2 true bigs, it leads to very crowded paints and driving lanes. Further compounding the problem was being on the short end of some would be fouls / calls that should have been made…which makes his 4.6 fouls drawn per game and .368 FTr look nice, even if the .368 isn’t great on its own (46 fouls drawn in 10 logged games on Synergy).

Crowded paints similar to the pictures below were pretty common at UNC, making it increasingly difficult to get any clean (or semi clean) opportunity. The reason I’m high on the finishing ability going forward is because of vertical pop and strength he has in the paint, ability to not get pushed off spot by defenders (dislodging some), and his solid (though not great) touch. He shows the ability to drive and finish with either hand going back to HS/AAU (though is R dominant) using pretty nice craft – use the inside hand if the defender is going outside, outside when defender is coming from inside, and finish through contact a bit. Had a few nice body control attempts with mixed results. With added spacing in the NBA, the driving lane will be cleaner with a less crowded paint. He’ll have to stop forcing a few attempts at the rim by seeing passing lanes a bit better, but in terms of his actual finishing ability, the numbers in college are a bit deceiving due to the complete lack of spacing UNC has. Prone to getting a bit out of control on drives – mainly charges and offensive fouls (off arm, a few body bumps that wouldn’t be called in NBA). Prone to pre-determining when he’s going to drive, which leads to forced looks and missed open passes

 
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Shooting: Good+ shooter both on and off ball, but needs to work on shot selection…which makes it even more impressive he was in the 77th percentile on HC jumpers, 58.3 eFG%. He didn’t get to show much movement shooting due to his role as the (only) engine (and good perimeter player/playmaker) on UNC, but he definitely has that ability – he’s not exclusively an on-ball player. Very good footwork off bounce and on the move – stays balanced, gets squared up nicely and quickly, and has a compact shooting form that he is able to get off quickly but comfortably and with rhythm. Smooth transition going from handle / dribble moves into jumpers on pull up Js. Loves stepback jumpers and shows ability to get into pull up Js from deep and midrange – comfortable in-between game, and has potential to be a nice PnR scorer because defenses won’t be able to go under without potentially being burned or go over without having the big come up because he can hit the midrange J or get to the rim.

Shot Versatility: Versatile shooter, both on and off ball. Good scorer off the bounce off a variety of dribble moves, can shoot pull up Js going downhill (good PUJ shooter out of PnR), and defenses can’t just back off him from 3 daring him to shoot. Off ball, he’s a good movement shooter who flashed ability to shoot off screens and was good in C&S opportunities (though smaller sample size, he did hit 38% of his 180 attempts in EYBL before college and 89% of his 195 FTs, which is great for his projection going forward – reason to buy shooting). If defenses close on him, he does a nice job beating the close and attacking the paint…which is very good if / when the vision (and floor spacing) opens up more, giving better driving and passing lanes. His shooting in college (so far) has been good in terms of percentages and variety

 
Shot IQ: Does not have great shot IQ. Settles for lower efficient shots like stepbacks (though he can hit it) and settles for too many jumpers…but on the flip side, when he does drive, some of those looks (and drives) are forced – including missing open teammates. UNC’s spacing is atrocious (29% shooting from 3 excluding Cole), which can at least partially explain why 77% of his shots in the HC are jumpers, but even so, some of those looks are early and not efficient. Would like to see him turn away some of the jumpers he takes and survey the floor a bit more, for lanes to attack (if there are any) and simply better looks too teammates.

Handle: Pretty advanced handle with a nice repertoire and either hand. Has crosses, hesitations, in-and-outs, does a nice job planting off outside foot on crosses (including through legs cross) and driving, and piecing together multiple dribble moves pretty seamlessly. Nice footwork and balance as he’s piecing together moves. Generally speaking, he does a good job keeping the ball low and does a good job keeping the ball under control, even as he’s putting multiple moves together (though handle can get a bit away from him from time to time while putting multiple moves together / splitting PnR). Comfortable driving with either hand. Nice change of speed, good job planting and powering off planted foot to explode, and good change of direction. Ball can get away from him when he’s driving in to traffic – would like to see him be stronger with the ball and more selective with some drives due to defenders’ quick hands (…and pull back when he shouldn’t attack). Prone to pre-determining when he’s going to drive, which leads to not reacting to the defense à turnovers.

Passing: Not a very good passer, though better than what he’s shown at UNC. Makes basic reads (drop-offs, swings, some kickouts), but not a preternatural passer / makes plays for others before they happen. He sees and then passes, nothing advanced (for the most part, just passing to the open teammates). As with finishing, clogged lanes and lack of spacing make it difficult to see some passing lanes, though he’s still missing wide open looks that he should be making. The pre-determining when he’s going to attack / that he’s going to make a move leads itself here, too à he misses open passes he should be making. Not a fan of his general passing touch – has some odd turnovers because the pass is (way) too high. Not a a great decision-maker in the HC, as he forces looks that aren’t really there, or are in a crowded area (extra spacing in NBA could help get some of these through, but others are just non-looks). Looks like he’s sometimes playing as if he’s in either scoring mode or facilitating mode – like, he knows what he wants to do before, instead of reading and reacting. Pretty good decisionmaker in transition

 
Awareness / Team Defense: Great awareness and plays good team defense in general. Does an awesome job rotating underneath to protect the rim weak side (had some of the best rim protection plays from anyone this year, in my opinion, regardless of position) – great timing and IQ. Does a nice job keeping eyes on his man and on the action when he’s off ball (head usually on swivel)…though he is prone to zoning out a bit off when he’s defending his man off screens. Does the things that can go unnoticed like dig off ball, keep hands in passing lanes on cutters, stunting on cutters, etc. Can sometimes overhelp (for example, sinking into the paint too much) and is then forced to scramble back to his man.

Rim Protection: As I just mentioned, he’s an awesome rim protector for a guard. As a primary and secondary defender, opponents shoot 39% when he is defending (7/18) and has had some of the best rotations / weakside blocks out of any player in the country, regardless of position. As a primary defender, he also does a great job protecting the rim for his size / when he’s sliding with the defender. Slides well when playing on hip of driver, but would like to see more consistent effort in getting back into the play when playing from behind (though does show flashes). When he’s trying to protect from behind (caught in a screen in PnR is the most common error with him), his effort wanes here…still some flashes, but not consistent at all – would like to see him hustle back a bit more, because he has the speed to recover and pop + timing to protect

PnR Defense: Needs some work here. Has the quickness to stay with most players and the strength to body them a bit, but footwork has to be cleaned up…and he needs to show more effort getting over the screen. Instead of sliding or trying to beat the screen over the top, he’s often turns his body (leading to being hit by the screen) – needs to fix this. He can get jumpy before the pick comes and often gets caught by the screen if he goes over (which doesn’t happen often). Flashes ability to get back in the play from behind (including some really high-level rim protections), but need to see a more consistent effort, as sometimes he lags behind if he thinks he’s dead in the water or sees help coming and thinks he’s in the clear. Would like to see him get over screens better and more often instead of going under most of them and then having to get back to the shooter…which is obviously dependent on who is handling, but he prefers going under and recovering regardless of who has the ball, which then means he’ll have to close out on a live dribble, when then opens up driving lanes (and running into his own man, which happened to him on occasion this year). To sum that up, stop going under ever screen and use quickness and strength to get over top a bit more because if he goes under screens as often as he does now in the NBA, he’ll get burned a lot. Would also like to see cleaner / more effort getting out to the ballhandler after going under the screen, though he has shown the ability to do it on occasion à just need it to be more consistent

 
Shot Contests / Closeouts: Inconsistent here. Can be pretty quick to closeouts and contesting the shot when he wants to be, but other times he’ll just half-ass the closeout / contest. The effort closes are really nice, though – makes me think this can be improved (although the results on 3PT% can vary regardless of a good close). Shows ability to dig / tag roll or cutter and then get out to the perimeter, even if it’s not his man – can rotate to the open perimeter player. Prone to closing out only prepping for a shot, meaning he’s not always close out ready to move on a dribble / catch and drive and ends up giving up a lane to attack.

Off Ball Defense: I already touched on his rim protection below, and it’s very good for a G, especially for a freshman guard – good team defender here. In addition, he rotates well on the perimeter to the open player when needed – something I’ve noticed is he appears to do a good job reading the eyes of the man with the ball, making it slightly easier to figure out where he’s passing and where he should rotate (if he’s not there already / is playing in between two players). However, defending his man off screen is a mixed bag, as he’s prone to losing his man off screens or movement (especially when trying to help on the main action).

Man Defense: Pesky defender who has quick feet, hands, and reacts quickly to moves. If he’s beaten off the bounce, he doesn’t always close out the play…which is annoying, and something he should fix (can fix) pretty easily – seems more of an effort thing, than anything else. Same with making an initial stop – he has to learn how to consistently finish out the play, because he can make 1-2 nice slides to stop the initial iso / drive attempt, and then relax for half a second and give up a clean look. Can be beaten off the bounce if he sits on his heels – needs to stay active in his stance, because when he is, he moves well laterally and does a good job using his strength to body guys just enough to keep them uncomfortable. Really love how quickly he can turn his hips (and get downhill, when he wants to) – he can do a really nice job sliding with the ballhandler.

Footwork: Definitely room to improve here. When he’s in his stance, he does a nice job moving laterally, stopping and going, etc…but is still prone to crossing his feet. In PnR, as stated above, instead of trying to beat the screen over the top and sliding, he’ll turn his body and cross his feet in an attempt to get over, which opens him up to the screen making it easier to get hit by it. He flashes the ability and willingness to have proper footwork, but it has to get drilled in

 
One way to find sleepers in any draft is to look for prospects with the right NBA tools who were stuck in smaller roles in college. No one gets excited about an NCAA player averaging 10 points per game. But that may say more about the way they were used than their ability. Devin Booker is the most famous recent example. He went from a shooting specialist coming off the bench at Kentucky to an All-Star in the NBA.

Two freshman prospects in the 2020 draft fit that mold: Josh Green (Arizona) and Cassius Stanley (Duke). They both have the combination of size, speed, and shooting ability that every NBA team needs on the wing. Both are elite high school recruits in complementary college roles

 
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