This rising team has a case as an underrated contender.
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The
Toronto Raptors are battling for one of the last playoff spots in the NBA's Eastern Conference, with only 1.5 games separating them from a top-six seed or falling out of the postseason entirely.
The Raptors have more losses than wins and only the 19th-best record in the NBA. But ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) still gives Toronto the third-best overall rating in the Eastern Conference and the sixth best in the league.
Why is BPI so high on the Raptors' upside? Is this team actually an underrated East contender? And what does Toronto need to do to start translating this potential into wins?
For starters, this group has played better than its record. Toronto's net rating of plus-2.2 reflects a top-10 team overall and top-four team in the East. Over a full-season sample, that should result in a higher playoff seed.
BPI takes scoring margin into account, but another element of the evaluation process is paramount here: predictive real plus-minus (RPM). While standard RPM is a measure of what a player has already accomplished, predictive RPM utilizes prior performance to estimate a player's impact for the rest of the season. It's an integral part of the revamped BPI formula.
Three players help tell the story about the dichotomy between Toronto's expectation and execution, while also indicating this team is on track to take off.
Kyle Lowry
The Raptors' key player for much of the past decade, Lowry finished sixth in the NBA in RPM last season with a score of plus-5.21 points per 100 possessions, placing him just behind
Chris Paul and just ahead of former teammate
Kawhi Leonard in estimated impact.
Lowry began this season ice cold from the floor, shooting only 40.8% from the field through his first 10 games. After that 10th game, Lowry seemed to find his shot again, upping his field goal percentage to 47.2% with his RPM steadily rising to a top-10 mark of plus-4.83.
Toronto needs an efficient Lowry to generate a winning offense, and his recovery back to his expected on-court offense is a good sign for the Raptors moving forward.
Pascal Siakam
Siakam also started the season dramatically underperforming expectations. His cold streak lasted even longer, as he averaged 18.1 points per game on 44.1% shooting with 4.3 free throw attempts through the first 18 games of the season. He has since started to bounce back, averaging 24.6 PPG on 49.1 FG% with 6.9 FTA through his past nine games, better embracing his role as the primary scoring option in the frontcourt.
Siakam's slow start has translated to an RPM score of minus-0.03 points per 100 possessions, the 20th-best mark among power forwards. That is far beneath his plus-3.21 RPM mark last season as well as his predictive RPM.
It's highly unlikely Siakam has just regressed into being an average NBA forward. The Raptors' lofty BPI score rests in part on the expectation that Siakam will maintain his significantly higher level of play.
The centers
The third and final player is actually an entire position.
Last season, the Raptors had one of the stronger center rotations in the NBA in
Marc Gasol and
Serge Ibaka. Replacing those two offseason departures with
Aron Baynes and
Alex Len was a huge drop-off, with Baynes posting an RPM score of minus-2.99 that ranks 68th among eligible centers and the since-waived Len not faring much better.
But there has been a bright spot in
Chris Boucher, a young stretch big on offense who has proved to be a strong shot-blocking presence on defense. Boucher comes off the bench, averaging 15.9 minutes in the Raptors' first few games. He quickly earned more time and has thrived in Toronto victories. Boucher is averaging 13.1 points and 5.3 rebounds in 21.8 minutes per game in losses this season, but he improves to 14.8 points and 8.7 rebounds in 25 minutes per game in wins. His plus-2.85 RPM (fourth best among NBA centers) indicates that increasing his minutes and role should continue to pay dividends.
There are legitimate reasons for the Raptors' slow start. They were one of eight teams to advance to the second round of the 2020 playoffs, leading to a shorter offseason. They lost multiple key players and had to relocate to Florida, which may have contributed to their pedestrian 6-6 home record to start the season.
Now, Toronto is rounding into form and moving up the standings. They might not belong in the East's top tier with the
Philadelphia 76ers,
Milwaukee Bucks and
Brooklyn Nets, but they should finish the season firmly in the second tier of challengers. And given the past playoff exploits of Lowry, Siakam and
Fred VanVleet, that will be a dangerous playoff opponent for anyone in the conference
