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The official COVID-19/Coronavirus Discussion Thread...aka I hope I don't get the Rona

Hundredeyes said:
Right so as some of Yall know, I reside in Holland/Europe and Rona/scientifically speaking interesting due to the high population density and the given that we are a transit country.

Back in march the government imposed a lockdown, I'm a essential worker so nothing changed for me lol, people followed suit, the curve started flattening and since half may - when the prime minister in his weekly briefings announced that the restaurants/bars etc will open again - and eventhough the curve was flattening the Rona was still going strong - the country basically re opened and people have flooded the streets like it was business usual...

Masks are only mandatory in public transport btw, the new normal/1.5 meter society is still mandatory but people over here aren't complying...there have been warnings for a second wave ever since half may but even after huge crowd gatherings - BLM, anti gov etc etc - there has been no second wave and there were actually zero covid deaths a few days ago...

I was for the lockdown btw, far from a conspiracy theorist and refuse to pick sides whatsoever, I am only interested in the science.

Allmost 4 months into this shit and countries like Sweden - who had no lockdown - and Japan - lmt lockdown - show similar results like we do here in Holland...

In fact all over the EU - allmost all countries have had different methods of controlling the virus and we all had similar results... Spring and summer basically came and the Rona started vanishing.

I have also lived in Indonesia for quite sometime and am still in touch with the fam and friends over there and they - indo is tropical, close to the equator, steady temps around 30 degrees celcius 365 days a year - and eventhough the infection rate is relatively high, the death rate is slow and according to indo scientists they have a different type of Rona than we have here in Holland.

The Dutch Prime minister went from 'we need a vaccin and were gonna social distance and lockdown untill there is one to investing in medicin/treatment - already some in the works by Sanquin, shit might be ready and working in Sept or Oct - to reopening gyms and stating the public can go the stadium and watch football...

Now I know my next statement might sound horrible for those in here that lost family and friends due to covid 19 but the science indicates that the virus ain't as lethal as we thought it was back in March. Out of the 10k people that died here in Holland only 90 died from corona alone. Since schools reopened back in May, over 12k education personnel tested positive for the virus but none have died... The average mortality rate is in the 80s...

People - doctors, business men etc - are suing the gov right now and loads of people thought the lockdown - which lead to many bankruptcies - and unnecessary deaths. Instead of locking down the entire country they feel the gov failed in protecting its weakest citizens - the mortality rate in retirement homes was absurd...back in 2018 there was a flu epidemic and thousands of elderly died than as well meaning the gov didn't learn etc...the gov imposed a lockdown to take care of the ICs/hospitals but downsized the hospital subsidies during the past 8 years and are not investing in training more staff and facilities in case a disasterious 2nd wave comes.

My theory is that most countries back in march didn't know what they were dealing with and just did the lockdown here in Europe out of ignorance...now the science is started to get clearer, loads of hospitals found the correct treatments - lot of remdiziver sc amongst others.

So basically the virus is not that lethal - still dangerous/not to be underestimated - but treatment - not a vaccin - is improving and a something like a cure on its way. In a climate zone like Holland, it seems to be seasonal - so it will return - but it is estimated that around a third of the population already had the virus - making the mortality rate below incredibly low...

Now the EU is opening borders and people here in Holland are booking holidays in countries like Italy and France whose govenments had ridiculous virus containing methods and lack contingency plans...meanwhile their results are similar to us and Sweden eventhough we had a 'intelligent lockdown' and Sweden basically none.

Excuse the titangraph, these are ridiculously interesting and strange times...
Click to expand...

When you say the disease isn't that lethal, it depends on what you mean. It's been known for a long time that if you're relatively young and in good health, getting Covid wouldn't be fun for you, but you'd survive. However, the disease is highly communicable and if people in that condition didn't take any measures then they basically put all the people who were at higher risk in danger. The U.S. has had over a million cases and we're well over 100K deaths. That's ~10% lethality. No, those aren't Ebola numbers, but that's still a lot of people. To put things into perspective, that's 100 times deadlier than the standard flu. So if we hadn't of gone into lockdown in the U.S. and that shit really just spread unchecked, it would have been catastrophic. Hell, it's been bad as it is with the lockdown.

There are a lot of different factors for why a disease can hit one place differently than another. You see some variation from country to country in Europe just like we see variation from state to state in the U.S. ]I mean you mention Italy. Italy suffered pretty bad for a while. A lot of people died that that probably wouldn't have if they were smarter about their reaction, so it doesn't make a lot of sense to act like they weren't hurt by their lack of smart response. I think every country that is seeing better days implemented something. It may not have been a full lock down, but people were social distancing, wearing masks, getting tested, etc... To compare to the US, when we were starting to see a downward trend, a lot of the Southern states just open up almost immediately abandoning all safety protocol and now most of them are worse off than they ever were.
 
Infamous114 said:
Click to expand...


Desantis at the end of may...



tenor.gif
 
The Lonious Monk said:
When you say the disease isn't that lethal, it depends on what you mean. It's been known for a long time that if you're relatively young and in good health, getting Covid wouldn't be fun for you, but you'd survive. However, the disease is highly communicable and if people in that condition didn't take any measures then they basically put all the people who were at higher risk in danger. The U.S. has had over a million cases and we're well over 100K deaths. That's ~10% lethality. No, those aren't Ebola numbers, but that's still a lot of people. To put things into perspective, that's 100 times deadlier than the standard flu. So if we hadn't of gone into lockdown in the U.S. and that shit really just spread unchecked, it would have been catastrophic. Hell, it's been bad as it is with the lockdown.

There are a lot of different factors for why a disease can hit one place differently than another. You see some variation from country to country in Europe just like we see variation from state to state in the U.S. ]I mean you mention Italy. Italy suffered pretty bad for a while. A lot of people died that that probably wouldn't have if they were smarter about their reaction, so it doesn't make a lot of sense to act like they weren't hurt by their lack of smart response. I think every country that is seeing better days implemented something. It may not have been a full lock down, but people were social distancing, wearing masks, getting tested, etc... To compare to the US, when we were starting to see a downward trend, a lot of the Southern states just open up almost immediately abandoning all safety protocol and now most of them are worse off than they ever were.
Click to expand...

You'll have to school me on the measurement methods in the US, here in Holland and in loads of other countries they track the infection, mortality and test rate with a 'a significant % of the untested population has had the Rona already disclaimer'. That 10% in the US is absurdly high when globally - even in countries like Sweden where there was no lockdown or even Japan for that matter - the mortality rate is around or less than 1% and that is without the given that governments assume that % is below 0.5% due to the 'not everyone got tested but probably had it' disclaimer and assumption.

The science remains in the nrs, deaths during flu seasons during the same periods are measured and so far - in Europe mostly - its seems like the nrs donot differ that much from the 2018 flu epidemic which for Holland in particular is actually quite similar - 9500 deaths in 2018 compared to the 10k deaths now, the difference is the late winter lockdown and that anno 2020 the flu and Rona deaths are combined.

The lockdown was necessary imo, because unlike Sweden and Japan, our healthcare and hospitals are simply not up to par/can't handle epidemics or pandemics. Imo our healthcare capabilities basically got exposed which is why a lot of people here in Holland are protesting right now because if or when a 2nd wave or other virus comes, we know we're not prepared. For Holland it might even be worse because people already experienced similar shit in 18 with the flu epidemic and we weren't prepared then aswell.

Another interesting scientific theory that is being embraced by Dutch and other virologists is that research has indicated that we only make antibodies for the Rona depending on how hard it strikes us but that the vast majority of the population can dismantle the Rona with their immune system. The average age of people dying from the Rona around here is around 80 years old... In Sweden it is 86...

All research indicate it is deadlier than the flu but it the same time it is closer to the flu than most people think. If this pandemic has proven anything than imo it has proven how much are healthcare has been lacking...

To paint a picture, the gov downsized 3/4th the ICs here in Holland during the past 8 years and when the Rona hit the fan we did not have enough IC beds, people with other illments- loads of which who have cancer - could not get treatment due to all hospitals being over populated...

Meanwhile in Japan they're laughing at us lol cause they have proper facilities in accordance with the population.
 
Hundredeyes said:
You'll have to school me on the measurement methods in the US, here in Holland and in loads of other countries they track the infection, mortality and test rate with a 'a significant % of the untested population has had the Rona already disclaimer'. That 10% in the US is absurdly high when globally - even in countries like Sweden where there was no lockdown or even Japan for that matter - the mortality rate is around or less than 1% and that is without the given that governments assume that % is below 0.5% due to the 'not everyone got tested but probably had it' disclaimer and assumption.

The science remains in the nrs, deaths during flu seasons during the same periods are measured and so far - in Europe mostly - its seems like the nrs donot differ that much from the 2018 flu epidemic which for Holland in particular is actually quite similar - 9500 deaths in 2018 compared to the 10k deaths now, the difference is the late winter lockdown and that anno 2020 the flu and Rona deaths are combined.

The lockdown was necessary imo, because unlike Sweden and Japan, our healthcare and hospitals are simply not up to par/can't handle epidemics or pandemics. Imo our healthcare capabilities basically got exposed which is why a lot of people here in Holland are protesting right now because if or when a 2nd wave or other virus comes, we know we're not prepared. For Holland it might even be worse because people already experienced similar shit in 18 with the flu epidemic and we weren't prepared then aswell.

Another interesting scientific theory that is being embraced by Dutch and other virologists is that research has indicated that we only make antibodies for the Rona depending on how hard it strikes us but that the vast majority of the population can dismantle the Rona with their immune system. The average age of people dying from the Rona around here is around 80 years old... In Sweden it is 86...

All research indicate it is deadlier than the flu but it the same time it is closer to the flu than most people think. If this pandemic has proven anything than imo it has proven how much are healthcare has been lacking...

To paint a picture, the gov downsized 3/4th the ICs here in Holland during the past 8 years and when the Rona hit the fan we did not have enough IC beds, people with other illments- loads of which who have cancer - could not get treatment due to all hospitals being over populated...

Meanwhile in Japan they're laughing at us lol cause they have proper facilities in accordance with the population.
Click to expand...

Just to add:

Wearing a mask outside is pretty much useless due to the given that the Rona doesn't really spread outside, inside - in badly ventilated areas - is where the virus spreads - which is why wearing a mask in public transport is mandatory over here but strangely enough isn't the case in grocerie stores and shopping malls lol.
 
Hundredeyes said:
Right so as some of Yall know, I reside in Holland/Europe and Rona/scientifically speaking interesting due to the high population density and the given that we are a transit country.

Back in march the government imposed a lockdown, I'm a essential worker so nothing changed for me lol, people followed suit, the curve started flattening and since half may - when the prime minister in his weekly briefings announced that the restaurants/bars etc will open again - and eventhough the curve was flattening the Rona was still going strong - the country basically re opened and people have flooded the streets like it was business usual...

Masks are only mandatory in public transport btw, the new normal/1.5 meter society is still mandatory but people over here aren't complying...there have been warnings for a second wave ever since half may but even after huge crowd gatherings - BLM, anti gov etc etc - there has been no second wave and there were actually zero covid deaths a few days ago...

I was for the lockdown btw, far from a conspiracy theorist and refuse to pick sides whatsoever, I am only interested in the science.

Allmost 4 months into this shit and countries like Sweden - who had no lockdown - and Japan - lmt lockdown - show similar results like we do here in Holland...

In fact all over the EU - allmost all countries have had different methods of controlling the virus and we all had similar results... Spring and summer basically came and the Rona started vanishing.

I have also lived in Indonesia for quite sometime and am still in touch with the fam and friends over there and they - indo is tropical, close to the equator, steady temps around 30 degrees celcius 365 days a year - and eventhough the infection rate is relatively high, the death rate is slow and according to indo scientists they have a different type of Rona than we have here in Holland.

The Dutch Prime minister went from 'we need a vaccin and were gonna social distance and lockdown untill there is one to investing in medicin/treatment - already some in the works by Sanquin, shit might be ready and working in Sept or Oct - to reopening gyms and stating the public can go the stadium and watch football...

Now I know my next statement might sound horrible for those in here that lost family and friends due to covid 19 but the science indicates that the virus ain't as lethal as we thought it was back in March. Out of the 10k people that died here in Holland only 90 died from corona alone. Since schools reopened back in May, over 12k education personnel tested positive for the virus but none have died... The average mortality rate is in the 80s...

People - doctors, business men etc - are suing the gov right now and loads of people thought the lockdown - which lead to many bankruptcies - and unnecessary deaths. Instead of locking down the entire country they feel the gov failed in protecting its weakest citizens - the mortality rate in retirement homes was absurd...back in 2018 there was a flu epidemic and thousands of elderly died than as well meaning the gov didn't learn etc...the gov imposed a lockdown to take care of the ICs/hospitals but downsized the hospital subsidies during the past 8 years and are not investing in training more staff and facilities in case a disasterious 2nd wave comes.

My theory is that most countries back in march didn't know what they were dealing with and just did the lockdown here in Europe out of ignorance...now the science is started to get clearer, loads of hospitals found the correct treatments - lot of remdiziver sc amongst others.

So basically the virus is not that lethal - still dangerous/not to be underestimated - but treatment - not a vaccin - is improving and a something like a cure on its way. In a climate zone like Holland, it seems to be seasonal - so it will return - but it is estimated that around a third of the population already had the virus - making the mortality rate below incredibly low...

Now the EU is opening borders and people here in Holland are booking holidays in countries like Italy and France whose govenments had ridiculous virus containing methods and lack contingency plans...meanwhile their results are similar to us and Sweden eventhough we had a 'intelligent lockdown' and Sweden basically none.

Excuse the titangraph, these are ridiculously interesting and strange times...
Click to expand...
Why are you continuing to use Sweden like it's some shining beacon of the power of herd immunity. Thousands of people have died there, meanwhile, Norway who they share a border with, went into lockdown and had less than 300 deaths. Even if you adjusted for the difference in population, Sweden still got burned. Meanwhile South Korea is still putting everyone to shame, with less than 300 deaths so far. They are united and compliant, perks of being an homogenous people, but that's a topic for another thread.

Yes, the virus isn't that lethal, but even with just a mortality rate of 1%, which it's higher last time I checked, but lets just say America went with herd immunity, which is basically what some states are trying to pull off, anyway due to ineptitude. 2-3 million people are going to die. I'm glad that you are aware of how horrible you sound.

Also, where did you get that "only 90 people died from coronavirus"? Is that a typo? I'm seeing very different numbers than you are, apparently.
 
Golan said:
Why are you continuing to use Sweden like it's some shining beacon of the power of herd immunity. Thousands of people have died there, meanwhile, Norway who they share a border with, went into lockdown and had less than 300 deaths. Even if you adjusted for the difference in population, Sweden still got burned. Meanwhile South Korea is still putting everyone to shame, with less than 300 deaths so far. They are united and compliant, perks of being an homogenous people, but that's a topic for another thread.

Yes, the virus isn't that lethal, but even with just a mortality rate of 1%, which it's higher last time I checked, but lets just say America went with herd immunity, which is basically what some states are trying to pull off, anyway due to ineptitude. 2-3 million people are going to die. I'm glad that you are aware of how horrible you sound.

Also, where did you get that "only 90 people died from coronavirus"? Is that a typo? I'm seeing very different numbers than you are, apparently.
Click to expand...

Taiwan only had 7 rona deaths but It's interesting that you mention south Korea but not the elephant in the room - Japan - a nation like Sweden that had little to no lockdown whatsoever significantly larger than Korea in all aspects with less than a 1000 deaths, Indonesia, another juggernaut with over 200 million people have and had a lockdown and have approx 2600 corona related deaths... We can compare dozens of countries with or without lockdowns, climate zones etc but at the end of the day, the mortality rate whoever cruell it may sound is not that high as previously assumed.

The 90 people isn't a typo, it's from the amount of people in Holland that died solely from corona - not with corona/with underlying diseases - and is from the RIVM (Dutch governmental agency that measures the corona data). The RIVM assumes that the actual nr of infected people and people that had the disease is actually several million people - Holland has a total population of approx 17 million people and its population density is the highest in the EU - so to keep things simple, let's assume 1.5 million Dutch people already had the virus - and the nrs show there is a small excess mortality of 3k people compared to the same period in 2019 - than out of 1.5 million people - and again I have to stress that the government actually assumes it are several million people - 13k deaths... which is one of the reasons Holland is basically back open, we only have the 1.5 meter rule that no one is complying with.

For some reason it is difficult to find proper Swedish nrs in English, this is the official Swedish gov website that follows the Rona statistics in sweden:

www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se

Bekräftade fall av covid-19 i Sverige

Senaste uppdateringarna om utbrottet av coronavirussjukdom (covid-19). Sidan uppdateras dagligen med antal fall kl. 14:00 eller när statistiken är sammanställd.
www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se

Regarding the % mortality rate of 1%, I think a lot of people. Interpretate it wrong. The flu - yeah yeah I know - also has a relatively high mortality rate below 1% but that doesn't mean 1 million people or 500k people in the States alone die from the flu on a yearly basis...viruses don't work that way, they mutate, our immunsystem evolves and yes, herd immunity is a real thing.
 
Hundredeyes said:
Taiwan only had 7 rona deaths but It's interesting that you mention south Korea but not the elephant in the room - Japan - a nation like Sweden that had little to no lockdown whatsoever significantly larger than Korea in all aspects with less than a 1000 deaths, Indonesia, another juggernaut with over 200 million people have and had a lockdown and have approx 2600 corona related deaths... We can compare dozens of countries with or without lockdowns, climate zones etc but at the end of the day, the mortality rate whoever cruell it may sound is not that high as previously assumed.

The 90 people isn't a typo, it's from the amount of people in Holland that died solely from corona - not with corona/with underlying diseases - and is from the RIVM (Dutch governmental agency that measures the corona data). The RIVM assumes that the actual nr of infected people and people that had the disease is actually several million people - Holland has a total population of approx 17 million people and its population density is the highest in the EU - so to keep things simple, let's assume 1.5 million Dutch people already had the virus - and the nrs show there is a small excess mortality of 3k people compared to the same period in 2019 - than out of 1.5 million people - and again I have to stress that the government actually assumes it are several million people - 13k deaths... which is one of the reasons Holland is basically back open, we only have the 1.5 meter rule that no one is complying with.

For some reason it is difficult to find proper Swedish nrs in English, this is the official Swedish gov website that follows the Rona statistics in sweden:

www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se

Bekräftade fall av covid-19 i Sverige

Senaste uppdateringarna om utbrottet av coronavirussjukdom (covid-19). Sidan uppdateras dagligen med antal fall kl. 14:00 eller när statistiken är sammanställd.
www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se

Regarding the % mortality rate of 1%, I think a lot of people. Interpretate it wrong. The flu - yeah yeah I know - also has a relatively high mortality rate below 1% but that doesn't mean 1 million people or 500k people in the States alone die from the flu on a yearly basis...viruses don't work that way, they mutate, our immunsystem evolves and yes, herd immunity is a real thing.
Click to expand...
Japan issued stay at home orders, they declared a state of emergency, the people complied. What are you talking about elephant in the room? I'm not even sure we're talking about the same thing at this moment. I thought you were implying that the lockdowns weren't effective, but clearly just from what you posted you just proved that they are.

Again, I don't know where you're getting this 90 number from. I just went to the RIVM site and I can't find anything relating specifically to Holland. Just on the entirety of Netherlands, which is 6k deaths, but they don't matter because most of them probably had comorbidities, lol. They would have died regardless whether or not covid was a thing. That's how you sound. Please link where you saw that 90 person figure from, though. You'll likely have an easier time navigating the site than I.

Also, I never said that herd immunity isn't a real thing, of course it is. I implied it's retarded to rely on. Which it absolutely is, in any scenario, but especially now with a virus as contagious as covid and one that we have no vaccine for and only a few drugs that are recently showing promise. Not to mention covid immunity doesn't even seem to be lasting that long.
 
Hundredeyes said:
You'll have to school me on the measurement methods in the US, here in Holland and in loads of other countries they track the infection, mortality and test rate with a 'a significant % of the untested population has had the Rona already disclaimer'. That 10% in the US is absurdly high when globally - even in countries like Sweden where there was no lockdown or even Japan for that matter - the mortality rate is around or less than 1% and that is without the given that governments assume that % is below 0.5% due to the 'not everyone got tested but probably had it' disclaimer and assumption.

The science remains in the nrs, deaths during flu seasons during the same periods are measured and so far - in Europe mostly - its seems like the nrs donot differ that much from the 2018 flu epidemic which for Holland in particular is actually quite similar - 9500 deaths in 2018 compared to the 10k deaths now, the difference is the late winter lockdown and that anno 2020 the flu and Rona deaths are combined.

The lockdown was necessary imo, because unlike Sweden and Japan, our healthcare and hospitals are simply not up to par/can't handle epidemics or pandemics. Imo our healthcare capabilities basically got exposed which is why a lot of people here in Holland are protesting right now because if or when a 2nd wave or other virus comes, we know we're not prepared. For Holland it might even be worse because people already experienced similar shit in 18 with the flu epidemic and we weren't prepared then aswell.

Another interesting scientific theory that is being embraced by Dutch and other virologists is that research has indicated that we only make antibodies for the Rona depending on how hard it strikes us but that the vast majority of the population can dismantle the Rona with their immune system. The average age of people dying from the Rona around here is around 80 years old... In Sweden it is 86...

All research indicate it is deadlier than the flu but it the same time it is closer to the flu than most people think. If this pandemic has proven anything than imo it has proven how much are healthcare has been lacking...

To paint a picture, the gov downsized 3/4th the ICs here in Holland during the past 8 years and when the Rona hit the fan we did not have enough IC beds, people with other illments- loads of which who have cancer - could not get treatment due to all hospitals being over populated...

Meanwhile in Japan they're laughing at us lol cause they have proper facilities in accordance with the population.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers, but you might want to check them. Here's a study from Johns Hopkins:

coronavirus.jhu.edu

Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

How does mortality differ across countries? Examining the number of deaths per confirmed case and per 100,000 population. A global comparison.
coronavirus.jhu.edu coronavirus.jhu.edu

The Netherlands has a mortality rate of 12.2%. That's actually much higher than in the U.S. There have been twice as many cases than I originally stated, so the mortality rate is around 5%.
 
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