Duke's lack of outside shooting I feel will be the reason they will not make it to the final 4. They are a great defensive team as far as making people turn the ball over and that fuels them to run. If they play against a grind it out team who doesn't turn the ball over a lot and plays good defense I think they are toast.
I'm a UVA fan but I see them losing early again this tournament. They will not lose the 1st matchup again but in their bracket I could see Oregon and Tennessee giving them fits. They have issues scoring and I know some of it is by design because they play a slow grind it out style but Guy and Jerome have issues against press defense. Guy is a great shooter and Jerome when healthy is pretty good also. Hunter is a good offensive player but I've watched many games where he barely gets touches.
I think Michigan State, Nevada (some what sleeper) ,Tennessee and UNC ( I fucking hate them) are the final 4 teams. UNC wins it all unfortunately.