DOS_patos
Unverified Legion of Trill member
ADDIS ABABA—In a major escalation of a bitter feud with his rivals in the northern region of Tigray, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered military action after what he said was an attack on a federal army camp in the early hours of Nov. 4. The announcement, which came after weeks of escalating tensions, may mark a dangerous tipping point for a country whose stability has been repeatedly tested since Abiy came to power in 2018.
The sharp deterioration did not come as surprise to close observers of Ethiopia’s once-promising transition to democracy—a shift that has largely been ushered in by Abiy, who also won a Nobel peace prize for his role in ending a 20-year cold war with neighboring Eritrea.
For months, many observers had sensed a showdown brewing between him and Tigray’s rulers, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), who dominated the country’s ruling coalition from 1991—when they overthrew the previous military dictatorship—until 2018. On Oct. 30, the International Crisis Group warned the standoff risked triggering a “damaging conflict that may even rip the Ethiopian state asunder.”
The roots of enmity run deep. The TPLF refused to join Abiy’s new ruling party, the Prosperity Party, when it was formed late last year; it views the new party as an attempt to dismantle the constitution. And earlier this year the Tigrayan leaders accused him of laying the groundwork for dictatorship by postponing elections due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In September, in defiance of the federal government, the Tigray region held its own elections, prompting parliament to vote to sever all ties with the regional leadership last month.
The TPLF also claims Abiy’s government has overseen the persecution of ethnic Tigrayans, who make up about 6 percent of the population, and a selective purging of Tigrayan officials and security service leaders in government. As a condition for dialogue, it demands Abiy step down as prime minister and allow for the establishment of a caretaker government.
The Prosperity Party, for its part, claims TPLF leaders are masterminding Ethiopia’s myriad troubles—which include political assassinations, protests, armed rebellions, and massacres of minorities—in order to derail the political transition and reclaim the power they’ve lost by force.
Both sides have been building up their military capacity—Tigray, as one of Ethiopia’s 10 semi-autonomous ethnically based regional states, has its own police and militia—and trading increasingly bellicose rhetoric. The federal government recently halted its monthly grant to Tigray, the latest in a volley of punitive fiscal and administrative measures designed to put pressure on its leaders.
It was not immediately clear who really fired the first gunshots. According to the federal government, the TPLF attempted to “loot” equipment from the federal military’s Northern Command, which is stationed in Tigray near the border with Eritrea and is said to comprise most of Ethiopia’s armed personnel and mechanized divisions. The TPLF has long believed this command’s officer corps—many of whom, insiders say, are Tigrayan—will not obey Abiy’s orders.
Last month, it said it would not accept any changes to the regiment’s leadership or structure, and then it refused to allow new commanders appointed by Abiy to take up their postings.
It is plausible, as Abiy claims, that the TPLF tried to seize assets belonging to the command. But it is not certain whether this took place before or after federal troops were deployed. A former Tigrayan general in Mekelle, the region’s capital, told me last week that taking such equipment “out of the equation” might be necessary should tensions boil over. A politburo meeting this weekend resulted in “historic decisions” taken to bolster the region’s preparedness, said Getachew Reda, a senior TPLF official, on Twitter. On Sunday the regional president, Debretsion Gebremichael, declared that “if war is imminent, we are prepared not just to resist but to win.”
The sharp deterioration did not come as surprise to close observers of Ethiopia’s once-promising transition to democracy—a shift that has largely been ushered in by Abiy, who also won a Nobel peace prize for his role in ending a 20-year cold war with neighboring Eritrea.
For months, many observers had sensed a showdown brewing between him and Tigray’s rulers, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), who dominated the country’s ruling coalition from 1991—when they overthrew the previous military dictatorship—until 2018. On Oct. 30, the International Crisis Group warned the standoff risked triggering a “damaging conflict that may even rip the Ethiopian state asunder.”
The roots of enmity run deep. The TPLF refused to join Abiy’s new ruling party, the Prosperity Party, when it was formed late last year; it views the new party as an attempt to dismantle the constitution. And earlier this year the Tigrayan leaders accused him of laying the groundwork for dictatorship by postponing elections due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In September, in defiance of the federal government, the Tigray region held its own elections, prompting parliament to vote to sever all ties with the regional leadership last month.
The TPLF also claims Abiy’s government has overseen the persecution of ethnic Tigrayans, who make up about 6 percent of the population, and a selective purging of Tigrayan officials and security service leaders in government. As a condition for dialogue, it demands Abiy step down as prime minister and allow for the establishment of a caretaker government.
The Prosperity Party, for its part, claims TPLF leaders are masterminding Ethiopia’s myriad troubles—which include political assassinations, protests, armed rebellions, and massacres of minorities—in order to derail the political transition and reclaim the power they’ve lost by force.
Both sides have been building up their military capacity—Tigray, as one of Ethiopia’s 10 semi-autonomous ethnically based regional states, has its own police and militia—and trading increasingly bellicose rhetoric. The federal government recently halted its monthly grant to Tigray, the latest in a volley of punitive fiscal and administrative measures designed to put pressure on its leaders.
It was not immediately clear who really fired the first gunshots. According to the federal government, the TPLF attempted to “loot” equipment from the federal military’s Northern Command, which is stationed in Tigray near the border with Eritrea and is said to comprise most of Ethiopia’s armed personnel and mechanized divisions. The TPLF has long believed this command’s officer corps—many of whom, insiders say, are Tigrayan—will not obey Abiy’s orders.
Last month, it said it would not accept any changes to the regiment’s leadership or structure, and then it refused to allow new commanders appointed by Abiy to take up their postings.
It is plausible, as Abiy claims, that the TPLF tried to seize assets belonging to the command. But it is not certain whether this took place before or after federal troops were deployed. A former Tigrayan general in Mekelle, the region’s capital, told me last week that taking such equipment “out of the equation” might be necessary should tensions boil over. A politburo meeting this weekend resulted in “historic decisions” taken to bolster the region’s preparedness, said Getachew Reda, a senior TPLF official, on Twitter. On Sunday the regional president, Debretsion Gebremichael, declared that “if war is imminent, we are prepared not just to resist but to win.”
