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Hedge-fund boss who predicted ‘87 crash says get ready for some ‘really scary moments’

DOS_patos

Unverified Legion of Trill member
Paul Tudor Jones, a hedge-fund luminary, said he’s stress-testing his portfolio of corporate debt because he expects a tumultuous road ahead on the back of the Federal Reserve’s apparent commitment to normalizing interest rates and buttressed by corporate tax cuts from the Trump administration.

Speaking at an economic forum in Greenwich, Conn., a hotbed for hedge funds, Jones said the Fed faces real challenges amid “the end of a 10-year run” of economic growth that many anticipate will soon come to a screeching, cyclical end.

Jones is widely credited with predicting, and profiting, from the stock-market crash on Oct. 19, 1987, which saw the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA, +0.49% lose nearly 23% of its value, marking the largest one-day percentage decline for the blue-chip benchmark in its history.

The 64-year-old investor founded Tudor in 1980 and became known for trading everything from currencies to commodities. However, his record has also featured middling returns and an exodus of billions from his hedge fund in more recent years.

In the past and during his talk in Greenwich, Jones said he believes that bonds and stocks are overvalued in an environment that had been underpinned by easy-money policies from central banks across the global.

He’s not alone.


The biggest threat to financial stability comes from the elevated level of the stock market and the sensitivity of bond prices to interest rates, says the conclusion of the Treasury Department’s Office of Financial Research, which on Thursday published its annual report to Congress. It called the overall threat to financial stability as “medium.”

Conventional wisdom holds that if rates climb too rapidly it could create a headwind for many assets because rising rates mean increased borrowing costs for corporations and richer yields can also undercut demand for stocks, compared against the perception of bonds as risk-free assets.

For a corporate debt perspective, a number of high-profile bonds have been in the news of late, including investment-grade debt issued by General Electric Co.GE, -1.84% andPG&E Corp. PCG, +37.54% Although the situations with PG&E and GE are idiosyncratic, the Wall Street Journal reported that issues with high-profile companies like GE and boring utilities could reshape the junk-bond market, if those issuers and their debt slides beneath levels deemed investible by a wide swath of investors.

On Thursday, stock investors were enduring a bumpy road, indeed, with the Dow swinging by hundreds of points before drifting deeper into the green, along with the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.22% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.15%
 
Wouldn't be suprised if another crash were on the horizon. These things seem to come in cycles. I don't believe in Crypto so what would be the next best investment to safely navigate during financial crisis?
 
Interest rates have been "normalized" for years though. They just barely got adjusted for the first time in ages once this year and no administration ever wants to actually do it (although it needs to be done). This is hype.
 
Part of the problem with the way modern markets work is that people invest in economies, industries or hype as opposed to actual companies so most investors do little to no research about what they're actually putting their money into. Why? Because that would be actual work.
 
There’s similar companies that haven’t ran up that much yet like i Fresh Inc. But I wouldn’t hold any of these companies long term just trade the action. The time to buy Blue Apron would have been yesterday or better.
 
There’s similar companies that haven’t ran up that much yet like i Fresh Inc. But I wouldn’t hold any of these companies long term just trade the action. The time to buy Blue Apron would have been yesterday or better.


True.


"The trend is your friend."


It opened up 46% today...........but now it's only up 28.92%.


No telling what it's gonna be once the market closes at 4pm.


When you buy into a stock that's on an upward trend........unless you time it right........you're not going to see any major gains until the following day and/or days to come.


However, as you alluded to earlier, it does get risky though.


Simply because it could go up so much that some people might get tempted to sell and take profits.


So it can come down just as fast.........if not faster............than it goes up.


Losses would be a lot bigger and/or faster because the percent of the loss would be based on a higher valued stock than what you started out with.
 
True.


"The trend is your friend."


It opened up 46% today...........but now it's only up 28.92%.


No telling what it's gonna be once the market closes at 4pm.


When you buy into a stock that's on an upward trend........unless you time it right........you're not going to see any major gains until the following day and/or days to come.


However, as you alluded to earlier, it does get risky though.


Simply because it could go up so much that some people might get tempted to sell and take profits.


So it can come down just as fast.........if not faster............than it goes up.


Losses would be a lot bigger and/or faster because the percent of the loss would be based on a higher valued stock than what you started out with.
why didnt you come thru the stock market game?

i had to teach @dasmooth1 a lesson.
i hate i had to do it. but he didnt identify himself.

but nah...im doing high risk shit with fake money.
it is what it is
 
Bloomberg News just tried to shut down Nouriel Roubini for keeping it real.


Told him they have to go to commercial.


Dude was just telling it like it is.


Basically went on a rant about how people are still walking around New York like everything's all good.........yet, all the stores are closed up.


Said the virus is gonna spread like wildfire unless we initiate China/Italy style quarantines in which people are basically locked inside their homes until further notice.


According to him, the virus is spreading in the U.S. at a rate of 70%.


And that, in 2 weeks, we're gonna go from 50,000 cases to over 100,000 cases.


That's when dude cut him off and said they had to go to commercial.


Problem is, this is exactly what people need to hear.


Wish the president would hold another press conference and have Roubini address the american people.


It might not be what people want to hear..........but it's definitely what people need to hear.
 
@16bitSheez


Looks like you were right.


Blue Apron's down 15% now.
Yea I was looking at that, it had went -32% during this post. Slight chance it could bounce back before end of day, but it would have to break past 14.00 first to stand a chance, which is wishful thinking at this point imo. If not it’s headed to 10.00 before close.
 
Yea I was looking at that, it had went -32% during this post.

Slight chance it could bounce back before end of day, but it would have to break past 14.00 first to stand a chance, which is wishful thinking at this point imo.


If not.......it’s headed to 10.00 before close.



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