11. Alex Sarr, Washington Wizards
Actual pick: No. 2
I ranked Sarr No. 1 before last year’s draft, but I would not have been quite as high on him if he’d been entering the draft this year because of some adjustments in how I look at center prospects.
With Sarr, I got a bit caught up in the idea of how he can expand his game at the center position. Undeniably, he moves incredibly fluidly at his size and has potential to switch. He has potential to shoot it, too, and is comfortable firing from distance. His passing this past season was a revelation, especially out of short rolls. He’s very comfortable with the ball, and I’m a huge proponent of every team needing a five-out look on the offensive end. Sarr can bring that.
However, he does not do the non-negotiable parts of being an NBA center to a startling degree. He doesn’t have great hands when it comes to grabbing contested rebounds and can be moved around when he tries to anchor his position. The same goes on defense, where he can struggle to deal with stronger players and get sealed off positionally.
On offense, Sarr is one of the worst finishers to enter the league at the center position in a long while. He made just 45.1 percent of his layups this past season in half-court settings, per Synergy, which is among the lowest marks I’ve ever seen for a big. He only made 55.4 percent of shots at the rim, and that was the second worst in the league among centers who took at least 150 shots at the rim, in front of only Andre Drummond. He’s also not a particularly good screener, either.
Sarr’s upside remains quite high if he can get stronger, can become a better screener and can somehow fix the catastrophic finishing issue around the rim. But without that, it might be quite difficult to get him into lineups that end possessions effectively on both ends of the court.
