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2021/22 NBA Season Thread

FOUR KEYS POWERED the Knicks' breakout season in 2020-21: Randle's rise into an All-NBA player, New York finishing with the league's No. 4 defense, midseason acquisition Derrick Rose's resurgence as a Sixth Man finalist and Barrett's sophomore leap.

Those pillars of last season's surprise run have teetered on the edge of collapse.

Randle, last season's Most Improved Player, has seen his shooting numbers decline: from 41% on 3s last season to 31% in 2021-22.

Some of that could be expected; even this year's 31% clip from behind the arc is the third highest of Randle's career. But Randle also ranks among the top five in difficulty of shots created off the dribble, per Second Spectrum's tracking. He has also run a league-leading 651 isolation and post-up plays this season; among the 31 players who have run at least 225 such plays, Randle ranks 27th in efficiency.

Randle has seen his points per drive drop from 1.12 last season -- which was just outside the league's top 10 -- to 1.03, which ranks 32nd out of 63 players with at least 100 direct drives this season, per Second Spectrum.

"They thought they had a guy they were going to be able to build around, and acted that way," a Western Conference scout said. "It may not be the case."

Said a second Eastern Conference executive: "He is still good, but he's not an All-NBA player like he was last year. That's a big difference."


But while the offense -- Randle's in particular -- has been troublesome, the team's defense has been a larger issue. Thibodeau, a defensive guru, is overseeing a team that slipped to 16th from its fourth-ranked unit last season.

Two of the main reasons: poor transition defense and a sharp decline in 3-point defense. The transition numbers are ugly, as New York went from ranking 11th last season to 27th this season, allowing 1.33 points per possession.

And the Knicks were the NBA's best team at defending opposing 3-pointers last season. They were also the luckiest. The 2.3% gap between what their opponents shot (33.7%) and what they were expected to shoot (36.0) was easily the biggest difference in the league, per Second Spectrum tracking, nearly twice as big as the second-place Utah Jazz.

This year, that gap has dropped to 1.3%. As a team, the Knicks have dropped to 15th overall in opponent 3-point percentage allowed.

Rose, meanwhile, has been sidelined since Dec. 16 with a right ankle injury that will keep him off the court until near the All-Star break in mid-February.

-Tim Bontempts
 
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