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COMMUNITY The Official 2024 Presidential Election Thread

Added to Calendar: 11-05-24

Los216 said:
Respectfully,

You don't know what you're talking about. Your characterization of Trump having a chance at the popular vote is way off to say the least. Trump will lose the popular vote by a larger margin than he lost in in both 202o and 2016.

Secondly, you fucked up by equating this to betting markets. Polling and bettering are not the same. The betting markets have the Celtics as the favorites to win the NBA Championship this season. If you polled the NBA fans across the country, the answer would be different. Polls are done using real people and real data that is measured and traced. Betting markets are set using smaller samples and less human interaction.

Also, nothing out there says that this is a dead heat. I literally posted a poll from Kansas that Trump won by 14 points in 2020. He's winning by 5 points this year. That means he is not polling well. It also means that this isn't a dead heat and the person in the lead is NOT the one that lost 9 POINTS in a RED state.

That last part about everything pointing to Trump being the one to win easy, also shows that you ain't really out here. Trump is UNDERPERFORMING in every single swing state since 2020. Trump is also not gaining ground in RED states. HE'S LOSING GROUND!!!!!!

Don't use data or talking points from somebody else. Take the time and go look for yourself.

She's whopping his ass right now.
Click to expand...

You do realize all of us have access to google right? Just as an example if you google polling info right now and go to BBC's website their polling averages show Trump ahead in every swing state outside of Michigan and tied in Wisconsin. This isn't a "Trump is def gonna win" take. It is a "you are blind and bias if you really see a Kamala route". There is not one piece of evidence pointing to that outcome. There are other polls that show similar results. Point is, you can't just look at one poll or one piece of data. CNN is the place that talked about the popular vote being very close.

And no, I didn't fuck up. As I said, the betting markets can be wrong but it is another data point to look at it and what seemingly everyone outside of you knows is a very close race.

I really need to see some sources for your info because it is the exact opposite of what I find when I google and read around multiple sources. Kamala is doing worse than almost everyone before her amongst minority groups. Trump wins 53 times out of 100 according to fivethirtyeight. Forbes has a pretty good breakdown of recent polls and they start the article with "Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead over former President Donald Trump in the four most recent national polls—but most surveys show a virtual dead-heat contest for the White House and close races in all seven swing states, keeping the race wildly unpredictable just one week before Election Day."

Their paragraph on swing states is "Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, and Trump leads in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona; they’re tied in Nevada, according to the Silver Bulletin. Most of the seven swing states have margins of less than one percentage point."

So I offer Forbes, CNN, BBC, and fivethirtyeight. Your proof is you are "out there".
 
Los216 said:
Respectfully,

You don't know what you're talking about. Your characterization of Trump having a chance at the popular vote is way off to say the least. Trump will lose the popular vote by a larger margin than he lost in in both 2020 and 2016.

Secondly, you fucked up by equating this to betting markets. Polling and bettering are not the same. The betting markets have the Celtics as the favorites to win the NBA Championship this season. If you polled the NBA fans across the country, the answer would be different. Polls are done using real people and real data that is measured and traced. Betting markets are set using smaller samples and less human interaction.

Also, nothing out there says that this is a dead heat. I literally posted a poll from Kansas that Trump won by 14 points in 2020. He's winning by 5 points this year. That means he is not polling well. It also means that this isn't a dead heat and the person in the lead is NOT the one that lost 9 POINTS in a RED state.

That last part about everything pointing to Trump being the one to win easy, also shows that you ain't really out here. Trump is UNDERPERFORMING in every single swing state since 2020. Trump is also not gaining ground in RED states. HE'S LOSING GROUND!!!!!!

Don't use data or talking points from somebody else. Take the time and go look for yourself.

She's whopping his ass right now.
Click to expand...
Right. The more you count, the more the blue votes are going to go up while the red remains stagnant.
 

Kamala Harris As Popular Among Democrats As Obama In 2008: Poll​


“Harris received a 72 percent favorability rating among the party's supporters in a recently released Gallup poll. This figure is likely the highest for a Democratic candidate going back almost 70 years, and ties Harris with Obama just before he was elected president for the first time.“

“The results found that the highest party favorability rating was registered in 1984, when 76 percent of Republicans backed Ronald Reagan. This was followed by Donald Trump's favorability rating of 73 percent among Republicans in 2020. Harris and Obama were tied for third place overall, and first place among Democratic nominees“

www.newsweek.com

Kamala Harris as popular among Democrats as Obama in 2008: poll

A new survey has found a 72 percent approval rating for Kamala Harris among Democratic voters — one of the highest of any nominee going back 70 years.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
 
DOPE33 said:
He really was , I remember that..I don't think he is just blowing smoke
Click to expand...
Agreed. When it comes to politics I always thought this dude was some government agent with insider information. Nigga was bringing up all kinds of angles I hadn’t seen on any media outlet and that shit came through.

I’m still skeptical cause I don’t want to jinx shit, but if the homie @Los216 is saying it, there’s a good chance there’s something there.
 
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