The number of murders across the United States declined sharply for much of 2024, continuing a recent downward trend, according to data collected by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, cities and independent researchers.

Murders spiked during the pandemic, and crime became a central focus of President-elect Donald J. Trump’s campaign message. Polls show Americans still see it as a major problem. And several high-profile homicides this year, including the recent killing of a homeless woman who was set on fire in a New York subway, may fan concerns.

But in 2023, the number of murders fell at the steepest rate ever recorded, according to the F.B.I.’s data.

That trend may be continuing, according to data from a mix of sources covering most or part of 2024. In some major cities, the numbers are at or below what they were before the pandemic.

Through October, data collected by the Real-Time Crime Index, based on reports from hundreds of law enforcement agencies, showed a nearly 16 percent decline in murders from 2023. The F.B.I.’s preliminary data for the first half of the year showed an even steeper decline.

But the F.B.I.’s data for the year is not yet complete, and it will not be until next year. Even with all of the statistics, the data set may not reflect the fullest picture on crime across the nation, as some law enforcement agencies do not report their numbers to the F.B.I.

Even with the data limitations, experts said the overall trend of declining murders nationally was clear. And several major cities saw striking reversals in the number of murders over the last two years.

Detroit, which last year recorded the lowest number of homicides in 57 years, is on track to see even fewer this year, according to the city’s data. In San Francisco, homicides have fallen by a third, according to that city’s Police Department. Chicago has so far recorded its lowest number of homicides and shootings since 2019, city data shows.

Other crime categories also had declines. Car thefts, which had risen steadily over the last few years, have fallen by about 20 percent this year, according to the Real-Time Crime Index. The number of rapes and aggravated assaults have also slightly declined.


Read More: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/30/us/murders-decline-crime-concerns.html